Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T06:08:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1D
0x1d9f…1471
crypto · 81 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
+$966 +4%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$965 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$542
Realized+$965
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses63 / 14
Open positions4
Markets (closed)77 / 81
History coverage592d
Avg bet$324
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown51%
Kalshi-fit84%
Chart Positions 4 History 77 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $410 $410 −$0 (-0%)
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? No 98¢ 98¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+0%)
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 11AM ET Down 48¢ 0¢ $108 $0 −$108 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 2AM ET Down 49¢ 0¢ $489 $0 −$489 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in May? Jun 14 $4 $0 +0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31 Jun 14 $6 $0 +0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 Jun 14 $100 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in May? Jun 14 $302 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in April? May 24 $200 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.20 in April? May 24 $300 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March? Apr 30 $5 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in March? Apr 30 $504 +$1 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Mar 31 $3 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in February? Mar 31 $30 $0 +0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 31 $500 +$3 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in January? Feb 22 $3 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026? Feb 22 $6 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? Feb 22 $9 $0 +0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Feb 22 $520 +$1 +0%
Will Tencent have the top AI model on December 31? Jan 12 $1 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft have the top AI model on December 31? Jan 12 $1 $0 +0%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? Jan 12 $1 $0 +18%
Will Moonshot have the top AI model on December 31? Jan 12 $2 $0 +0%
Will Z.ai have the top AI model on December 31? Jan 12 $2 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $17,000 by December 31? Jan 12 $2 $0 +2%
Will Ethereum dip to $800 by December 31? Jan 12 $2 $0 +1%
Will Mistral AI have the top AI model on December 31? Jan 12 $3 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 12 $8 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 12 $10 $0 +2%
Will Ethereum hit $14,000 by December 31? Jan 12 $37 $0 +0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Jan 12 $461 +$6 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in November? Dec 07 $5 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 in November? Dec 07 $5 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in November? Dec 07 $6 $0 +1%
Will Monad perform an airdrop by June 30? Dec 07 $11 $0 +0%
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports (BO5) Nov 02 $4,591 +$1,424 +31%
Will Apple be the most valuable company on October 31? Nov 02 $1 $0 +0%
Will Google be the most valuable company on October 31? Nov 02 $2 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in October? Nov 02 $3 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in October? Nov 02 $3 $0 +2%
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in October? Nov 02 $5 $0 +1%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting? Nov 02 $12 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2000 in October? Nov 02 $50 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 11AM ET Nov 01 $108 −$108 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 17, 3AM ET Oct 17 $99 +$121 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 2AM ET Oct 15 $489 −$489 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $4,400 on October 5? Oct 15 $1 $0 +0%
Will Meta have the top AI model on September 30? Oct 05 $2 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200K in September? Oct 05 $5 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70K in September? Oct 05 $8 $0 +1%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on August Sep 06 $3 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200K in August? Sep 06 $12 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60K in June? Aug 02 $8 $0 +1%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Aug 02 $30 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 62% +$6
sports 19% +$1,422
crypto 11% −$473
economics 7% +$9
other 1% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $2 1h
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $410 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $4 20d
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $302 20d
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on BUY No 100¢ $100 20d
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31 BUY No 100¢ $6 20d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 BUY No 100¢ $100 20d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.20 in April? BUY No 100¢ $300 44d
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in April? BUY No 100¢ $200 44d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $5 75d
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $30 75d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $504 75d
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? BUY No 100¢ $3 112d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m BUY No 100¢ $500 112d
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $30 112d
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $6 152d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? BUY No 100¢ $9 152d
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in January? BUY No 100¢ $3 152d
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? BUY No 100¢ $520 152d
Will Ethereum hit $14,000 by December 31? BUY No 100¢ $37 188d
Will Z.ai have the top AI model on December 31? BUY No 100¢ $2 188d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in November? BUY No 99¢ $5 221d
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after December 2025 meeting? BUY No 99¢ $88 222d
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after December 2025 meeting? BUY No 99¢ $307 222d
Will Monad perform an airdrop by June 30? BUY Yes 100¢ $11 223d
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after December 2025 meeting? BUY No 99¢ $66 223d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in November? BUY No 99¢ $6 223d
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 in November? BUY No 99¢ $5 223d
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports (BO5) BUY T1 93¢ $930 223d
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports (BO5) BUY T1 71¢ $114 223d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 6 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 11 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.3%
all 77 -1.2% -10.6% 82% 4% -6.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.6% 4% -6.1%
10% -19.1% 3% -15.1%
15% -27.0% 1% -23.3%
20% -34.1% 1% -30.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $542.46 · official $542.46 (match) · 396 history records