Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:58:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1D 0x1da4…c856 crypto 102 markets active 2d ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (162 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$174 (-9%) realized −$174 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate41%42W / 60L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day162.3pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 66% −$247
other 32% −$19
sports 2% −$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (162 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-27.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 102 -20.0% -27.6% 41% 36% -24.6%
≤30d 102 -20.0% -27.6% 41% 36% -24.6%
≤90d 102 -20.0% -27.6% 41% 36% -24.6%
all 102 -20.0% -27.6% 41% 36% -24.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover162.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -27.6% 36% -24.6%
10% ← realistic here -34.5% 23% -31.8%
15% -40.9% 12% -38.4%
20% -46.7% 7% -44.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -38% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$8 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.4 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$174
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses42 / 60
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)102 / 102
History coverage2d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day162.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 102 Trades
no open positions (37 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 13 $12 −$11 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$8 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 13 $12 +$7 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 13 $12 −$4 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 13 $13 +$4 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 13 $11 +$4 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 13 $24 −$23 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 13 $17 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 13 $21 −$2 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 13 $21 +$3 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 13 $13 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 13 $14 −$13 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 13 $14 +$2 +12%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $74 −$7 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 13 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 13 $3 +$2 +71%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $5 $0 -4%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Neither team to score first? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -97%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Neither team to score first? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $15 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 13 $9 −$3 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 13 $13 −$12 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 13 $19 +$3 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 13 $15 −$7 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +4%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $20 −$2 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 13 $17 −$15 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 13 $23 +$3 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 13 $11 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 13 $43 −$41 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 13 $35 −$13 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 13 $21 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 13 $21 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 13 $23 −$4 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$2 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 13 $22 +$10 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 13 $23 +$11 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 13 $23 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 13 $43 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 13 $22 +$9 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 13 $44 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 13 $21 −$10 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 13 $42 −$13 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 13 $24 +$10 +42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $1 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $10 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET SELL Down 9¢ $2 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $10 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $1 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET SELL Down 17¢ $1 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $1 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET SELL Up 62¢ $18 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $10 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET SELL Down 15¢ $7 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $1 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $11 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET SELL Up 29¢ $3 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET SELL Down 91¢ $15 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $3 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $10 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET SELL Up 31¢ $14 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $11 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $11 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $3 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $10 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET SELL Up 58¢ $3 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET SELL Down 52¢ $3 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $3 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET SELL Down 46¢ $11 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $10 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET SELL Down 69¢ $11 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $10 46h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 337 history records