Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T08:29:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1D 0x1da4…e65c crypto 786 markets active 1h ago coverage 209d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$154 (-1%) realized −$132 · open −$22
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate49%383W / 402L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day13.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$78
7 days−$321
14 days−$241
30 days−$145
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 34% −$107
weather 26% +$201
sports 26% −$203
other 12% −$146
politics 1% −$49
world 1% +$3
tech 1% +$43
economics 0% −$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -36.1% -42.2% 33% 33% -60.7%
≤30d 211 -1.0% -10.5% 47% 42% -12.6%
≤90d 264 +8.6% -1.7% 48% 43% -9.4%
all 785 -0.8% -10.3% 49% 40% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.3% 40% -10.9%
10% -18.9% 33% -19.5%
15% -26.7% 27% -27.2%
20% -33.9% 20% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$10 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

209d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$132
Unrealized−$22
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses383 / 402
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)785 / 786
History coverage209d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day13.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 785 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 27? Yes 46¢ 0¢ $22 $0 −$22 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 27? Jun 27 $5 −$5 -94%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 26? Jun 26 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 26? Jun 26 $45 −$45 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 25? Jun 25 $14 −$14 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 25? Jun 25 $23 +$12 +51%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 24? Jun 24 $15 +$10 +68%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 24? Jun 24 $21 +$16 +74%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 21? Jun 23 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 22? Jun 22 $51 −$51 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 21? Jun 22 $21 +$13 +62%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 21? Jun 21 $21 −$20 -96%
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 21? Jun 21 $13 −$7 -51%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 21? Jun 21 $32 +$15 +48%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? Jun 21 $57 −$57 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 20 $33 −$33 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 31°C on June 20? Jun 20 $16 −$13 -78%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 30°C on June 20? Jun 20 $146 −$116 -79%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 20? Jun 20 $10 +$14 +145%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on June 19? Jun 19 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 19? Jun 19 $55 +$86 +157%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 19? Jun 19 $21 +$2 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 15°C on June 18? Jun 18 $19 −$19 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 18? Jun 18 $67 −$52 -78%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 18? Jun 18 $73 −$73 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C on June 18? Jun 18 $4 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on June 18? Jun 18 $25 +$14 +55%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 18? Jun 18 $6 +$6 +90%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 18? Jun 17 $29 −$12 -43%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 17? Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 17°C on June 17? Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 18? Jun 17 $8 −$1 -11%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 17? Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 17? Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $50 +$32 +65%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $10 +$87 +916%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $11 −$5 -51%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $40 +$18 +46%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 16? Jun 16 $6 −$1 -14%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 16? Jun 16 $47 −$40 -86%
Will Zelenskyy post 40-59 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $50 +$13 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $2 +$3 +116%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $21 −$3 -12%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 15? Jun 15 $21 +$21 +98%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 15? Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 15? Jun 15 $19 −$19 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 15? Jun 15 $21 −$21 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 27? SELL Yes 50¢ $4 51m
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 27? SELL Yes 53¢ $3 52m
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 27? BUY Yes 46¢ $29 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 27? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 3h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 27? BUY Yes 32¢ $4 10h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 27? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 14h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 26? BUY Yes 22¢ $45 36h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 26? BUY Yes 35¢ $25 36h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 25? BUY No 1¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 25? BUY No 1¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 25? BUY Yes 25¢ $8 2d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 25? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 25? BUY Yes 25¢ $4 2d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 25? BUY No 1¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 25? BUY No 1¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 25? SELL Yes 57¢ $35 2d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 24? SELL Yes 95¢ $26 2d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 24? BUY Yes 55¢ $15 2d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 25? BUY Yes 35¢ $2 3d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 25? BUY Yes 35¢ $14 3d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 24? SELL Yes 94¢ $3 3d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 24? SELL Yes 94¢ $34 3d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 25? BUY Yes 35¢ $2 3d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 25? BUY Yes 35¢ $5 3d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 24? BUY Yes 53¢ $21 3d
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 22? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 5d
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 22? BUY Yes 74¢ $51 5d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 21? SELL No 3¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 21? SELL No 8¢ $6 5d
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 21? BUY No 13¢ $0 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.02 · official $0.02 (match) · 3111 history records