Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T23:49:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
1D 0x1da5…55bb other 15 markets active 2h ago coverage 9d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$67 (+24%) realized +$70 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +40% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +27% what you keep after slip
Net edge+27%after slip
Net WR70%break-even
Win rate70%7W / 3L
Drawdown29%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit20%portable
Net worth$37now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$22
7 days+$46
14 days+$69
30 days+$69
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 89% +$50
sports 11% +$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +70%
net ROI/market (all)+26.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +31.9% +19.4% 67% 67% +24.7%
≤30d 10 +40.1% +26.8% 70% 70% +34.6%
≤90d 10 +40.1% +26.8% 70% 70% +34.6%
all 10 +40.1% +26.8% 70% 70% +34.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +26.8% 70% +34.6%
10% +14.6% 70% +21.7%
15% +3.6% 60% +9.9%
20% -6.6% 30% -0.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 56% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +49% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +40% · $-wt +49% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$7 · ×1.86 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.34 per $1 lost it wins $4.34
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$37
Realized+$70
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses7 / 3
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions4
Markets (closed)10 / 15
History coverage9d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown29%
Kalshi-fit20%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 20¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+23%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-20%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 6¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-32%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $20 +$10 +50%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $20 +$13 +62%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 19 $10 −$1 -7%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 +$27 +262%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 +$5 +46%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 +$2 +24%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $20 +$10 +50%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $20 +$23 +114%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $30 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 63¢ $10 12h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $20 12h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? SELL Yes 8¢ $10 34h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 34h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $20 34h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 2d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 2d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $30 4d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $10 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $10 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $20 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $43 7d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY 49¢ $98 7d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $20 8d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 9d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 9d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.06 · official $37.06 (match) · 33 history records