Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T13:01:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1D 0x1da6…e563 crypto 1116 markets active 0h ago coverage 68d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 67d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$393 (-1%) realized −$392 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate26%293W / 822L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day29.7pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$38
7 days−$124
14 days−$153
30 days−$684
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% −$357
other 1% −$81
weather 1% −$50
politics 1% −$23
economics 0% −$8
finance 0% −$1
tech 0% −$15
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-8.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 -23.0% -30.3% 10% 2% -28.8%
≤30d 381 -26.5% -33.5% 8% 7% -16.6%
≤90d 1115 +1.6% -8.1% 26% 24% -11.3%
all 1115 +1.6% -8.1% 26% 24% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.1% 24% -11.3%
10% ← realistic here -16.9% 23% -19.8%
15% -24.9% 20% -27.5%
20% -32.3% 16% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$4 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

68d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$392
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses293 / 822
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1115 / 1116
History coverage68d ⚠
Avg bet$24
Trades / day29.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1115 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Adriano Espaillat win the NY-13 Democratic Primary by 5–10%? Yes 25¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 34 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
United Airlines (UAL) Q2 total revenue per available seat mile 19.5¢+? Jun 28 $34 −$8 -22%
United Airlines (UAL) Q2 total revenue per available seat mile 19¢-19. Jun 28 $32 −$5 -17%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 50 and 60 million views on week Jun 28 $45 −$10 -23%
Will "Trump" be said 10+ times during the next episode of the Storytim Jun 28 $4 −$2 -40%
Will Bryce Dettloff win Love Island USA Season 8? Jun 27 $16 −$3 -17%
Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide? Jun 27 $26 −$11 -43%
Will Russia enter Krasnoiarske by September 30? Jun 26 $1 $0 +3%
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of PNL? Jun 26 $13 +$1 +5%
Will Donald Trump visit South Dakota in 2026? Jun 26 $3 −$3 -85%
Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by July 17, 2026? Jun 25 $7 −$1 -14%
Will GPT-5.6 be released on June 25, 2026? Jun 25 $8 −$4 -53%
Will Olivier Faure announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presid Jun 25 $4 −$1 -32%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 17? Jun 25 $1 $0 +33%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 29? Jun 25 $11 $0 +4%
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of PSD? Jun 25 $23 −$2 -10%
Will Jess Phillips be in the Burnham cabinet? Jun 25 $7 −$5 -80%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30? Jun 25 $8 −$1 -10%
Will Delta Q2 passenger load factor be between 85% and 87%? Jun 24 $16 −$1 -5%
Will Rachel Reeves be in the Burnham cabinet? Jun 24 $9 −$3 -30%
Will the Democratic Party win the FL-23 House seat? Jun 24 $3 −$1 -38%
Will the Democratic Party win the CA-34 House seat? Jun 24 $1 $0 -36%
Will Ed Miliband be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in Jun 24 $10 −$5 -45%
Will the Bank of Japan announce no change at the September 2026 meetin Jun 24 $14 −$12 -86%
Will Yvette Cooper be in the Burnham cabinet? Jun 24 $17 −$1 -3%
Over $10M committed to the Laso Finance public sale? Jun 24 $6 −$3 -62%
Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (HIGH) $1,290 Week of June 22 20 Jun 24 $5 −$1 -22%
Will Catherine West be in the Burnham cabinet? Jun 24 $16 −$1 -5%
Over $15M committed to the Laso Finance public sale? Jun 24 $4 −$1 -20%
Over $3M committed to the Laso Finance public sale? Jun 24 $15 $0 -3%
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be appointed by December 31? Jun 24 $3 $0 -10%
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be appointed by July 31? Jun 24 $9 −$1 -9%
Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (HIGH) $1,230 Week of June 22 20 Jun 24 $8 −$2 -27%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 24? Jun 23 $5 $0 -6%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $720 in June? Jun 23 $36 −$1 -3%
Will the next UK Prime Minister be appointed by July 19? Jun 23 $8 −$1 -10%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.40 in June? Jun 23 $32 −$4 -14%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 24? Jun 22 $14 −$1 -7%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 22? Jun 22 $36 −$10 -28%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 22? Jun 22 $39 −$15 -38%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 22? Jun 21 $16 $0 -2%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 22? Jun 21 $11 −$2 -18%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 22? Jun 21 $6 −$2 -39%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 21? Jun 21 $8 −$2 -27%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on June 21? Jun 20 $16 −$14 -91%
Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting? Jun 20 $88 −$8 -9%
Will Adriano Espaillat win the NY-13 Democratic Primary by less than 5 Jun 20 $12 $0 +3%
Will Cait Conley win the NY-17 Democratic Primary by 10–15%? Jun 20 $12 −$1 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 20? Jun 20 $46 −$2 -4%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 20? Jun 19 $7 −$1 -12%
Will Trump speak to Elon Musk in June? Jun 18 $15 −$1 -6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
United Airlines (UAL) Q2 total revenue per available seat mile 19.5¢+? SELL No 68¢ $27 6m
United Airlines (UAL) Q2 total revenue per available seat mile 19.5¢+? BUY No 86¢ $34 7m
United Airlines (UAL) Q2 total revenue per available seat mile 19¢-19. SELL No 67¢ $26 1h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 50 and 60 million views on week SELL No 36¢ $35 1h
United Airlines (UAL) Q2 total revenue per available seat mile 19¢-19. BUY No 79¢ $32 2h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 50 and 60 million views on week BUY No 45¢ $45 2h
Will "Trump" be said 10+ times during the next episode of the Storytim SELL Yes $1 10h
Will "Trump" be said 10+ times during the next episode of the Storytim SELL Yes 22¢ $1 11h
Will "Trump" be said 10+ times during the next episode of the Storytim BUY Yes 20¢ $4 11h
Will Bryce Dettloff win Love Island USA Season 8? SELL Yes 67¢ $13 26h
Will Bryce Dettloff win Love Island USA Season 8? BUY Yes 80¢ $16 26h
Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide? SELL Yes 29¢ $14 35h
Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide? BUY Yes 51¢ $26 36h
Will Russia enter Krasnoiarske by September 30? SELL Yes 30¢ $1 41h
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of PNL? SELL No 43¢ $13 42h
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of PNL? SELL No 43¢ $0 42h
Will Russia enter Krasnoiarske by September 30? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 42h
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of PNL? BUY No 41¢ $13 42h
Will Donald Trump visit South Dakota in 2026? SELL No $0 2d
Will Donald Trump visit South Dakota in 2026? BUY No 16¢ $3 2d
Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by July 17, 2026? SELL No 31¢ $6 2d
Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by July 17, 2026? BUY No 36¢ $7 3d
Will GPT-5.6 be released on June 25, 2026? SELL Yes $4 3d
Will GPT-5.6 be released on June 25, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $8 3d
Will Olivier Faure announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presid SELL Yes 15¢ $3 3d
Will Olivier Faure announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presid BUY Yes 22¢ $4 3d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 17? SELL No $2 3d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 29? SELL Yes 57¢ $7 3d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 29? SELL Yes 57¢ $4 3d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 17? BUY No $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records