Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T03:00:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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1D 0x1da8…3cea crypto 341 markets active 0h ago coverage 74d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$118 (-2%) realized −$118 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate54%181W / 157L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day8.3pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$394
7 days−$17
14 days−$12
30 days−$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 85% −$380
other 9% −$44
sports 3% +$162
weather 2% +$27
world 0% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 106 +4.0% -5.9% 53% 52% -10.3%
≤30d 117 +5.7% -4.4% 55% 54% -10.0%
≤90d 338 -2.3% -11.6% 54% 53% -13.0%
all 338 -2.3% -11.6% 54% 53% -13.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.6% 53% -13.0%
10% -20.1% 47% -21.3%
15% -27.8% 37% -28.9%
20% -34.9% 27% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$15 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

74d coverage
Net worth$40
Realized−$118
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses181 / 157
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)338 / 341
History coverage74d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day8.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 338 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 56¢ 56¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 19 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 19 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 19 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 19 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 19 $26 −$18 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 19 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 19 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 19 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 19 $16 −$8 -54%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 19 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 19 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 19 $55 −$55 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 19 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 19 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C on April 23? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 19 $25 −$25 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $20 −$1 -5%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 19 $20 −$1 -4%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $20 +$18 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 19 $41 +$27 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 19 $10 +$4 +42%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 19 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 19 $15 −$3 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 19 $35 +$9 +25%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $20 +$6 +29%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $20 +$12 +57%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$5 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$7 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 18 $30 +$9 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 18 $91 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 18 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$6 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 17 $15 +$7 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 17 $51 +$9 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$4 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 17 $40 +$4 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $20 2m
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 56¢ $20 2m
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 46¢ $19 8m
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 60¢ $19 8m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 64¢ $19 8m
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 92¢ $38 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $5 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET SELL Down 48¢ $7 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $5 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $5 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $5 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $5 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $5 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $5 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $5 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $5 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $5 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $5 15m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $20 17m
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $20 17m
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $20 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET SELL Up 19¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.66 · official $39.66 (match) · 981 history records