trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI? | No | 50¢ | 50¢ | $29 | $29 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 2¢ | 2¢ | $10 | $8 | −$2 (-21%) |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET | Down | 3¢ | 0¢ | $2 | $0 | −$2 (-100%) |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET | Down | 4¢ | 0¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET | Jun 14 | $2 | −$2 | -94% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET | Jun 14 | $1 | +$1 | +70% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET | Jun 14 | $1 | +$1 | +51% |
| Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Jun 14 | $20 | +$12 | +58% |
| Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Jun 11 | $20 | +$9 | +45% |
| Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? | Apr 20 | $30 | +$1 | +4% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET | Apr 03 | $1 | −$1 | -93% |
| Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? | Apr 01 | $30 | $0 | +1% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 5 | +24.9% | +13.0% | 80% | 80% | +31.5% |
| ≤30d | 5 | +24.9% | +13.0% | 80% | 80% | +31.5% |
| ≤90d | 8 | +3.6% | -6.3% | 75% | 50% | +8.1% |
| all | 8 | +3.6% | -6.3% | 75% | 50% | +8.1% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -6.3% | 50% | +8.1% |
| 10% | -15.2% | 50% | -2.3% |
| 15% | -23.4% | 50% | -11.7% |
| 20% | -30.9% | 38% | -20.4% |