Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T02:43:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

1D 0x1dab…9f7b crypto 3 markets active 1h ago coverage 26d

RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real

Total PnL +$134 (+62%) realized +$65 · open +$69

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +19% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +7% what you keep after slip

Net edge+7%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate50%1W / 1L

Drawdown8%max

Avg bet$72per market

Trades / day0.1pace

Fees−$2est.

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$169now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 26d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)+7.4%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	no closed markets
≤30d	2	+18.7%	+7.4%	50%	50%	+94.4%
≤90d	2	+18.7%	+7.4%	50%	50%	+94.4%
all	2	+18.7%	+7.4%	50%	50%	+94.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.1 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+7.4%	50%	+94.4%
10%	-2.9%	50%	+75.8%
15%	-12.3%	50%	+58.8%
20%	-20.9%	50%	+43.2%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +115% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +19% · $-wt +115% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$141 vs −$11 · ×13.12 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×13.12 per $1 lost it wins $13.12

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

26d coverage

Net worth$169

Realized+$65

Unrealized+$69

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses1 / 1

Est. fees paid−$2

Open positions1

Markets (closed)2 / 3

History coverage26d

Avg bet$72

Trades / day0.1

Drawdown8%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 2 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29?	Yes	41¢	69¢	$100	$169	+$69 (+69%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Spread: Argentina (-1.5)	Jun 23	$103	+$141	+137%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET	Jun 04	$11	−$11	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29?	BUY Yes	41¢	$103	1h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5)	BUY Argentina	41¢	$103	7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET	BUY Down	6¢	$11	25d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $169.49 · official $169.51 (match) · 5 history records