Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T09:53:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
1D 0x1dad…ee77 sports 53 markets active 2h ago coverage 105d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$243 (-4%) realized −$270 · open +$27
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate62%31W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$108per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$36est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$398now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days−$10
14 days−$10
30 days−$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 91% −$131
other 6% −$89
economics 4% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -28.5% -35.4% 57% 57% -10.6%
≤30d 7 -28.5% -35.4% 57% 57% -10.6%
≤90d 32 -8.0% -16.8% 56% 50% -17.5%
all 50 -0.6% -10.0% 62% 56% -13.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 56% -13.5%
10% -18.6% 52% -21.8%
15% -26.5% 34% -29.4%
20% -33.7% 20% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +20% → late -21% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$43 vs −$82 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

105d coverage
Net worth$398
Realized−$270
Unrealized+$27
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses31 / 19
Est. fees paid−$36
Open positions3
Markets (closed)50 / 53
History coverage105d
Avg bet$108
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 50 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 4.6% and 4.9%? Yes 62¢ 66¢ $200 $210 +$10 (+5%)
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 3 Winner Karmine Corp 88¢ 100¢ $131 $149 +$18 (+14%)
Will Bilibili Gaming win MSI 2026? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 28 $101 +$32 +32%
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 28 $26 −$25 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 28 $191 +$35 +18%
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 28 $230 +$36 +16%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $150 +$51 +34%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $40 −$39 -98%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Invictus Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Apr 14 $171 −$169 -99%
LoL: Fnatic vs SK Gaming - Game 1 Winner Apr 14 $80 −$80 -100%
LoL: Fnatic vs SK Gaming (BO3) - LEC Regular Season Apr 14 $120 −$120 -100%
LoL: Fnatic vs SK Gaming - Game 2 Winner Apr 13 $60 +$1 +1%
LoL: Team Vitality vs Shifters (BO3) - LEC Regular Season Apr 13 $34 −$34 -100%
LoL: Team Vitality vs Shifters - Game 2 Winner Apr 12 $254 +$21 +8%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Team Vitality (BO3) - LEC Regular Season Apr 12 $150 −$150 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs JD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Apr 12 $50 −$50 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs JD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Apr 12 $50 −$50 -100%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Apr 12 $163 +$52 +32%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Apr 12 $125 +$38 +30%
LoL: Top Esports vs JD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Apr 11 $30 +$43 +143%
LoL: Team WE vs Invictus Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Apr 11 $100 +$38 +38%
LoL: Team WE vs Invictus Gaming - Game 2 Winner Apr 11 $100 +$42 +42%
LoL: G2 NORD vs Unicorns Of Love Sexy Edition (BO1) - Prime League 1st Apr 11 $57 −$57 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Invictus Gaming - Game 1 Winner Apr 11 $100 +$44 +44%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Apr 10 $69 +$38 +55%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Hanwha Life Esports Challengers (BO3) - Apr 10 $95 +$75 +79%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE - Game 2 Winner Apr 08 $20 −$20 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 08 $116 +$55 +48%
LoL: GIANTX vs Team Heretics - Game 2 Winner Apr 07 $100 −$100 -100%
LoL: GIANTX vs Team Heretics (BO3) - LEC Regular Season Apr 06 $311 −$34 -11%
LoL: Top Esports vs Anyone's Legend - Game 1 Winner Apr 05 $20 +$50 +249%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Apr 05 $82 +$21 +26%
LoL: Top Esports vs Invictus Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Apr 04 $40 +$63 +158%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Mar 23 $80 −$80 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - First Stand Playoffs Mar 22 $150 +$46 +31%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Mar 22 $160 +$80 +50%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Mar 22 $120 +$58 +48%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Mar 22 $100 +$61 +61%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs JD Gaming (BO5) - First Stand Playoffs Mar 21 $270 +$63 +24%
LoL: Gen.G vs G2 Esports - Game 1 Winner Mar 21 $153 −$153 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs BNK FEARX - Game 1 Winner Mar 21 $70 −$70 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs G2 Esports (BO5) - First Stand Playoffs Mar 21 $28 +$22 +79%
LoL: Gen.G vs G2 Esports - Game 3 Winner Mar 21 $203 +$17 +9%
LoL: Gen.G vs G2 Esports - Game 2 Winner Mar 21 $50 +$89 +178%
LoL: Gen.G vs JD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Mar 18 $20 −$20 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs JD Gaming - Game 3 Winner Mar 18 $258 −$207 -80%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs G2 Esports - Game 3 Winner Mar 18 $48 +$22 +45%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs G2 Esports - Game 2 Winner Mar 18 $27 +$21 +78%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs G2 Esports - Game 1 Winner Mar 18 $21 +$7 +31%
LoL: Gen.G vs JD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Mar 17 $100 +$28 +28%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs BNK FEARX (BO5) - First Stand Group A Mar 17 $149 +$70 +47%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 88¢ $131 1h
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 1 Winner SELL Karmine Corp 100¢ $133 3h
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 75¢ $101 3h
Will Bilibili Gaming win MSI 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $41 4h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Liquid 13¢ $26 5h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner SELL T1 100¢ $0 5h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner SELL T1 100¢ $265 5h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 86¢ $230 6h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner SELL T1 100¢ $226 6h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 84¢ $191 8h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 50¢ $102 17h
Will China GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 4.6% and 4.9%? BUY Yes 62¢ $204 21h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 100¢ $201 31h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 74¢ $150 32h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 18¢ $40 41h
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Invictus Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend BUY Invictus Gaming 56¢ $171 74d
LoL: Fnatic vs SK Gaming (BO3) - LEC Regular Season BUY Fnatic 52¢ $120 75d
LoL: Fnatic vs SK Gaming - Game 2 Winner SELL SK Gaming 36¢ $61 75d
LoL: Fnatic vs SK Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY SK Gaming 35¢ $60 75d
LoL: Fnatic vs SK Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Fnatic 59¢ $80 75d
LoL: Team Vitality vs Shifters (BO3) - LEC Regular Season BUY Shifters 28¢ $34 76d
LoL: Team Vitality vs Shifters - Game 2 Winner SELL Team Vitality 99¢ $235 76d
LoL: Team Vitality vs Shifters - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Vitality 73¢ $168 76d
LoL: Team Vitality vs Shifters - Game 2 Winner SELL Shifters 29¢ $40 76d
LoL: Team Vitality vs Shifters - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Vitality 67¢ $7 76d
LoL: Team Vitality vs Shifters - Game 2 Winner BUY Shifters 57¢ $80 76d
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner SELL Bilibili Gaming 100¢ $215 76d
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 75¢ $163 76d
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner SELL Bilibili Gaming 100¢ $163 76d
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 76¢ $125 77d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $397.90 · official $397.90 (match) · 137 history records