Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:21:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1D 0x1dae…0336 sports 150 markets active 0h ago coverage 77d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$865 (-2%) realized −$372 · open −$493
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate50%74W / 73L
Whale WR78%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$235per market
Trades / day8.5pace
Fees−$525est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,161
7 days+$335
14 days+$646
30 days+$2,097
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$1,958
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-20.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -0.9% -10.3% 55% 50% -4.5%
≤30d 58 +7.0% -3.2% 62% 60% +3.7%
≤90d 147 -12.2% -20.6% 50% 46% -13.4%
all 147 -12.2% -20.6% 50% 46% -13.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.6% 46% -13.4%
10% -28.2% 41% -21.7%
15% -35.1% 35% -29.2%
20% -41.5% 30% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 78% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -23% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$154 vs −$176 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

77d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$372
Unrealized−$493
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses74 / 73
Whale WR (big bets)78%
Est. fees paid−$525
Open positions3
Markets (closed)147 / 150
History coverage77d
Avg bet$235
Trades / day8.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 147 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Nongshim Esports Academy 6¢ 0¢ $192 $2 −$190 (-99%)
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner T1 Academy 11¢ 0¢ $257 $1 −$256 (-100%)
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner Nongshim Esports Academy 34¢ 0¢ $46 $0 −$46 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $223 +$113 +51%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner Jun 17 $408 +$300 +74%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $407 +$257 +63%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $101 +$10 +10%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $615 +$481 +78%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $433 −$429 -99%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $155 −$126 -81%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $259 +$200 +77%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $103 −$3 -3%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $424 −$423 -100%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group D Jun 12 $640 −$336 -52%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $128 −$121 -94%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $624 +$476 +76%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $29 −$29 -100%
LoL: Partizan Sangal vs WLGaming Esports - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $408 +$49 +12%
LoL: Misa Esports vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $21 +$26 +120%
LoL: BOMBA Team vs Anubis Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $115 −$86 -75%
LoL: Solary vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $367 −$362 -98%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs LOUD - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $238 +$163 +68%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs LOUD - Game 2 Winner Jun 10 $299 +$176 +59%
LoL: FN Esports vs Verdant (BO1) - EMEA Masters Swiss Stage Jun 09 $25 +$3 +12%
LoL: Karmine Corp Blue vs CITA Kaizen (BO1) - EMEA Masters Swiss Stage Jun 08 $166 −$164 -99%
LoL: Winthrop University vs CCG Esports (BO5) - North American Challen Jun 05 $649 +$382 +59%
LoL: Winthrop University vs CCG Esports - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $475 +$423 +89%
LoL: Winthrop University vs CCG Esports - Game 4 Winner Jun 04 $396 −$396 -100%
LoL: Winthrop University vs CCG Esports - Game 1 Winner Jun 04 $402 +$333 +83%
LoL: ⁠Movistar KOI Fénix vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 3 Winner Jun 04 $69 +$29 +42%
LoL: ⁠Movistar KOI Fénix vs UCAM Esports Club (BO5) - LES Playoffs Jun 04 $346 −$343 -99%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 4 Winner Jun 03 $256 +$179 +70%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Barça eSports - Game 3 Winner Jun 03 $37 −$29 -77%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner Jun 03 $108 −$106 -99%
LoL: The Bandits vs mCon esports (BO5) - Road Of Legends Playoffs Jun 02 $519 +$319 +61%
LoL: The Bandits vs mCon esports - Game 4 Winner Jun 02 $46 −$46 -100%
LoL: The Bandits vs mCon esports - Game 2 Winner Jun 02 $414 +$75 +18%
LoL: The Bandits vs mCon esports - Game 3 Winner Jun 02 $52 −$51 -99%
LoL: The Bandits vs mCon esports - Game 1 Winner Jun 02 $61 +$21 +34%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 02 $125 −$87 -70%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars Academy vs KaBuM! Ilha das Lendas (BO5) - Circuit Jun 02 $15 +$5 +34%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars Academy vs KaBuM! Ilha das Lendas - Game 1 Winner Jun 01 $208 +$212 +102%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs GIANTX - Game 1 Winner Jun 01 $286 −$284 -99%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE - Game 2 Winner Jun 01 $380 +$120 +32%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE - Game 3 Winner Jun 01 $239 +$172 +72%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Shopify Rebellion - Game 2 Winner May 31 $408 −$53 -13%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 3 Winner May 31 $90 +$41 +46%
LoL: Forsaken vs BOMBA Team - Game 3 Winner May 31 $195 +$105 +54%
LoL: Team Vitality vs GIANTX - Game 3 Winner May 31 $367 −$366 -100%
LoL: Team Vitality vs GIANTX - Game 2 Winner May 31 $363 +$236 +65%
LoL: Team Vitality vs GIANTX (BO5) - LEC Playoffs May 31 $43 +$17 +40%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Sentinels - Game 3 Winner May 30 $227 +$173 +76%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs LOS - Game 1 Winner May 30 $87 −$86 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner SELL Nongshim Esports Academy 100¢ $336 26m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 1¢ $17 27m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 1¢ $13 29m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 26¢ $8 43m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 26¢ $15 43m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 32¢ $2 44m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 32¢ $123 44m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 32¢ $16 44m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 32¢ $2 44m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner SELL T1 Academy 100¢ $663 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 Academy 11¢ $264 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner SELL T1 Academy 15¢ $128 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 Academy 35¢ $166 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 Academy 35¢ $44 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 Academy 58¢ $25 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 Academy 58¢ $138 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 73¢ $4 2h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 73¢ $0 2h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 66¢ $65 2h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 66¢ $10 2h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 66¢ $5 2h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 66¢ $3 2h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 66¢ $116 2h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 66¢ $6 2h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 66¢ $13 2h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 34¢ $47 3h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 Academy 67¢ $271 4h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 Academy 56¢ $19 4h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 Academy 50¢ $117 4h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 57¢ $408 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.93 · official $2.93 (match) · 723 history records