Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T14:42:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
1D 0x1daf…7b2d crypto 363 markets active 17h ago coverage 94d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$10 (-1%) realized −$10 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate37%135W / 228L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day6.7pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$8
14 days−$10
30 days−$32
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 41% −$35
other 32% −$57
sports 27% +$52
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-20.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 50 -9.2% -17.9% 42% 42% -14.9%
≤30d 72 -23.7% -31.0% 33% 33% -25.3%
≤90d 324 -12.9% -21.2% 36% 35% -12.4%
all 363 -12.4% -20.8% 37% 35% -12.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.8% 35% -12.8%
10% -28.4% 32% -21.1%
15% -35.3% 29% -28.7%
20% -41.6% 25% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.55 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

94d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses135 / 228
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions0
Markets (closed)363 / 363
History coverage94d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day6.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 363 Trades
no open positions (157 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? Jun 17 $1 $0 -5%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $6 +$4 +63%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 2 DR Congo? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $2 +$1 +35%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2 +$1 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -96%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $4 +$1 +16%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Senegal to score first vs. France? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $7 −$2 -27%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $1 $0 -11%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $6 +$4 +64%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$2 +53%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $2 +$1 +37%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $1 +$1 +40%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $1 $0 +37%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $4 +$3 +88%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $2 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $2 −$1 -52%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $4 −$4 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $6 +$1 +22%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $8 +$2 +19%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $5 $0 +8%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $5 +$7 +144%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $2 +$3 +194%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 3 Switzerland? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $2 −$1 -44%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $1 +$2 +146%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $3 +$4 +162%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $3 $0 -16%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $3 $0 -6%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$2 +111%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $3 −$3 -98%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $3 +$1 +46%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs G2 Ares - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $1 +$3 +315%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Team Liquid ID vs Bigetron by Vitality (BO5) Jun 12 $4 +$4 +91%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 BUY Over $3 17h
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? SELL Yes 13¢ $1 17h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 12¢ $2 17h
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 17h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $1 17h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes $2 18h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 17¢ $6 18h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $5 18h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 2 DR Congo? BUY Yes $3 20h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 32h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes $0 33h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 33h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL Yes 49¢ $3 33h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 33h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes $0 33h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 11¢ $3 33h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $1 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $2 33h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 42h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 30¢ $1 42h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $4 43h
Senegal to score first vs. France? BUY Yes 32¢ $1 43h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Vici Gaming 56¢ $6 2d
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner SELL Yakult Brothers 36¢ $1 2d
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Yakult Brothers 38¢ $1 2d
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner SELL Vici Gaming 40¢ $1 2d
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner SELL Vici Gaming 41¢ $4 2d
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Vici Gaming $1 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 2d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 77¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 672 history records