Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:24:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
1D 0x1db6…4231 other 51 markets active 1h ago coverage 24d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$169 (+31%) realized +$175 · open −$6
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate43%20W / 27L
Drawdown23%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day4.1pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit47%portable
Net worth$19now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$31
7 days+$179
14 days+$188
30 days+$185
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 48% +$201
other 43% +$17
world 4% −$13
crypto 3% −$15
tech 2% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)+1.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 +21.5% +10.0% 45% 45% +29.4%
≤30d 47 +12.5% +1.8% 43% 43% +24.2%
≤90d 47 +12.5% +1.8% 43% 43% +24.2%
all 47 +12.5% +1.8% 43% 43% +24.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.8% 43% +24.2%
10% -8.0% 43% +12.3%
15% -16.8% 40% +1.4%
20% -25.0% 36% -8.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +37% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +37% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +21% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$7 · ×2.73 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.02 per $1 lost it wins $2.02
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$19
Realized+$175
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses20 / 27
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions3
Markets (closed)47 / 51
History coverage24d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day4.1
Drawdown23%
Kalshi-fit47%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 47 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will USA reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 16¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-8%)
Will USA reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 10¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-44%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? No 30¢ 26¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $20 +$32 +155%
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 2 Panama? Jun 18 $5 −$4 -73%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $15 −$5 -33%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $10 +$7 +65%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 +$5 +48%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $10 +$7 +67%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 15 $10 +$5 +52%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $10 −$1 -6%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $22 +$10 +44%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Draw at halftime? Jun 15 $3 +$3 +90%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 0 Ecuador? Jun 15 $1 +$7 +712%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$25 +250%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 2 - 0 Ecuador? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 2 - 1 Ecuador? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Portugal be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? Jun 14 $10 −$1 -6%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $4 +$9 +216%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 +$6 +57%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $41 +$70 +172%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $31 +$38 +125%
Will Alex Sandro be in Brazil's Starting 11? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Lucas Paquetá: 1+ goals Jun 13 $6 −$6 -98%
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$12 +114%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 +$11 +109%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $10 +$25 +249%
SpaceX IPO: Will Elon Musk Ring the Bell? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 +$8 +83%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $20 +$49 +240%
Karl-Anthony Towns: Points O/U 17.5 Jun 09 $10 −$10 -95%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $15 −$4 -24%
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 26.5 Jun 09 $10 −$10 -99%
Spurs vs. Knicks: 1H Moneyline Jun 09 $5 −$2 -48%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $30 +$35 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET May 31 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 31 $8 +$2 +27%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 99¢ $46 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 2 Panama? SELL Yes $1 1h
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 2 Panama? BUY Yes $5 2h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 32¢ $5 2h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 25¢ $6 2h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 32¢ $5 2h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 30¢ $5 3h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $10 3h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 37¢ $5 25h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 64¢ $9 26h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 70¢ $10 45h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 45h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 60¢ $10 45h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 59¢ $10 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 2d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 41¢ $5 2d
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) SELL Saudi Arabia 94¢ $15 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 51¢ $10 2d
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 61¢ $5 2d
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 61¢ $5 2d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 56¢ $10 2d
Spread: Spain (-3.5) SELL Cabo Verde 66¢ $9 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $20 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 3d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 52¢ $3 3d
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 2 - 0 Ecuador? BUY Yes $2 3d
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 0 Ecuador? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 3d
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 2 - 1 Ecuador? BUY Yes $2 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19.00 · official $19.00 (match) · 108 history records