Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T01:37:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

1D 0x1db8…524e crypto 11 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ bot/MM pace (61 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died

Total PnL +$4 (+0%) realized +$4 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip

Net edge-31%after slip

Net WR27%break-even

Win rate45%5W / 6L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$92per market

Trades / day61.0pace

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +27%

net ROI/market (all)-18.7%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	11	-10.1%	-18.7%	45%	27%	-25.6%
≤30d	11	-10.1%	-18.7%	45%	27%	-25.6%
≤90d	11	-10.1%	-18.7%	45%	27%	-25.6%
all	11	-10.1%	-18.7%	45%	27%	-25.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover61.0 tr/day

realistic slip~13%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	-18.7%	27%	-25.6%
10% ← realistic here	-26.5%	9%	-32.7%
15%	-33.6%	9%	-39.2%
20%	-40.1%	9%	-45.2%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 68% · top 2 87% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

40% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -10% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

4.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer

Win / loss size

+$11 vs −$39 · ×0.27 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.23 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized+$4

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)45%

Wins / losses5 / 6

Open positions0

Markets (closed)11 / 11

History coverage1d

Avg bet$92

Trades / day61.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 11 Trades

no open positions

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET	Jun 28	$52	−$20	-39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET	Jun 28	$36	+$2	+4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET	Jun 28	$16	−$16	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET	Jun 28	$306	−$92	-30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET	Jun 28	$79	−$79	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET	Jun 28	$26	+$36	+137%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET	Jun 28	$93	+$10	+11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET	Jun 28	$241	−$18	-8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET	Jun 28	$25	+$5	+19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET	Jun 28	$92	−$7	-7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET	Jun 28	$41	+$1	+1%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET	SELL Up	51¢	$38	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET	BUY Up	50¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET	BUY Up	49¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET	BUY Up	44¢	$26	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET	BUY Down	53¢	$26	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET	SELL Down	46¢	$32	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET	BUY Down	35¢	$26	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET	BUY Up	4¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET	BUY Up	6¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET	BUY Up	12¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET	BUY Down	4¢	$27	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET	BUY Down	9¢	$27	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET	BUY Down	56¢	$26	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET	SELL Up	99¢	$62	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET	BUY Up	40¢	$26	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET	SELL Up	78¢	$91	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET	SELL Down	27¢	$11	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET	BUY Up	53¢	$5	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET	BUY Up	53¢	$5	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET	BUY Up	53¢	$5	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET	BUY Up	50¢	$5	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET	BUY Up	53¢	$5	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET	BUY Up	48¢	$5	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET	BUY Up	47¢	$5	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET	BUY Up	45¢	$5	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET	BUY Down	56¢	$26	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET	BUY Up	64¢	$26	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET	SELL Up	15¢	$1	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET	BUY Up	60¢	$103	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET	SELL Up	82¢	$108	2h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 66 history records