Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T06:34:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
1D 0x1dbb…b286 other 66 markets active 2h ago coverage 13d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$372 (+18%) realized +$375 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate60%36W / 24L
Drawdown36%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day7.2pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit20%portable
Net worth$157now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$102
7 days+$168
14 days+$355
30 days+$355
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 84% +$328
sports 13% +$8
crypto 3% +$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 +0.5% -9.0% 61% 61% +7.7%
≤30d 60 +0.1% -9.4% 60% 58% +7.1%
≤90d 60 +0.1% -9.4% 60% 58% +7.1%
all 60 +0.1% -9.4% 60% 58% +7.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 58% +7.1%
10% -18.1% 47% -3.1%
15% -26.0% 43% -12.5%
20% -33.2% 32% -21.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$20 · ×1.15 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.73 per $1 lost it wins $1.73
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$157
Realized+$375
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses36 / 24
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions6
Markets (closed)60 / 66
History coverage13d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day7.2
Drawdown36%
Kalshi-fit20%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 60 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Wimbledon ATP: Andrey Rublev vs Roman Safiullin Andrey Rublev 68¢ 66¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-2%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Yes 74¢ 74¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Wimbledon ATP: Emilio Nava vs Ignacio Buse Ignacio Buse 61¢ 58¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-4%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? Yes 44¢ 42¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-3%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 21¢ 21¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $51 +$33 +65%
Will Qingdao Xihaian FC win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $30 +$12 +39%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Jun 28 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 28 $30 +$33 +109%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $30 +$5 +16%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $30 +$18 +60%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $30 +$27 +90%
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $30 +$5 +17%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $30 −$30 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $40 +$9 +21%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $20 +$14 +70%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $20 +$5 +24%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $30 +$20 +65%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $20 $0 -1%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $20 −$20 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $20 +$19 +93%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $20 +$7 +34%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $30 +$6 +20%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $20 +$8 +40%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $31 +$41 +136%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 24 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $61 +$33 +54%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $20 +$10 +50%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $41 +$70 +172%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $50 +$22 +44%
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $122 +$139 +114%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $81 −$81 -100%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla Jun 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 21 $30 $0 +0%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $50 +$6 +12%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Jun 21 $81 −$13 -16%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $40 +$23 +57%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $30 +$16 +52%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $30 +$21 +70%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $20 +$13 +62%
Dota 2: Carstensz vs Yangon Galacticos (BO3) - The International South Jun 20 $40 +$6 +14%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $51 +$36 +71%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $20 −$1 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Wimbledon ATP: Emilio Nava vs Ignacio Buse BUY Ignacio Buse 61¢ $30 1h
Wimbledon ATP: Andrey Rublev vs Roman Safiullin BUY Andrey Rublev 68¢ $40 2h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 44¢ $20 5h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 74¢ $30 5h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 58¢ $30 5h
Will Qingdao Xihaian FC win on 2026-06-28? SELL Yes 94¢ $42 18h
Will Qingdao Xihaian FC win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 67¢ $30 19h
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational BUY Deep Cross Gaming 1¢ $1 23h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 23h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 60¢ $51 23h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 52¢ $30 44h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 85¢ $30 44h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 62¢ $30 44h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 49¢ $30 44h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 47¢ $30 44h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 86¢ $30 44h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 82¢ $40 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 37¢ $20 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 37¢ $20 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 58¢ $20 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 37¢ $20 2d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 80¢ $20 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 60¢ $30 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 84¢ $20 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $20 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $30 3d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 84¢ $20 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 53¢ $20 4d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 59¢ $20 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 51¢ $20 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $156.53 · official $156.53 (match) · 128 history records