Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:45:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
1D 0x1dbb…352f crypto 455 markets active 1h ago coverage 66d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,101 (-2%) realized −$960 · open −$141
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate55%233W / 194L
Whale WR65%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$109per market
Trades / day21.9pace
Fees−$42est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$3,985now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$441
7 days−$1,467
14 days−$955
30 days−$871
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 62% −$1,011
other 13% −$1,837
politics 9% +$777
sports 9% +$682
world 5% −$165
weather 1% −$287
tech 0% +$6
economics 0% −$1
finance 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-18.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 -32.1% -38.6% 43% 41% -25.7%
≤30d 99 -21.1% -28.6% 47% 33% -14.8%
≤90d 427 -10.2% -18.7% 55% 40% -12.9%
all 427 -10.2% -18.7% 55% 40% -12.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.7% 40% -12.9%
10% ← realistic here -26.5% 25% -21.2%
15% -33.6% 18% -28.9%
20% -40.1% 12% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 65% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$36 vs −$51 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

66d coverage
Net worth$3,985
Realized−$960
Unrealized−$141
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses233 / 194
Whale WR (big bets)65%
Est. fees paid−$42
Open positions28
Markets (closed)427 / 455
History coverage66d
Avg bet$109
Trades / day21.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 28 History 427 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026? No 87¢ 86¢ $559 $552 −$7 (-1%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? No 77¢ 92¢ $424 $505 +$81 (+19%)
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 58¢ 56¢ $464 $447 −$17 (-4%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 11¢ $300 $385 +$85 (+28%)
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? No 95¢ 99¢ $333 $347 +$14 (+4%)
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? Yes 69¢ 70¢ $240 $243 +$3 (+1%)
Will GameStop acquire eBay? No 84¢ 84¢ $233 $231 −$2 (-1%)
Will A Nation That Has Never Won the World Cup Win in 2026? No 75¢ 68¢ $144 $132 −$12 (-9%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? No 29¢ 12¢ $303 $121 −$182 (-60%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? No 94¢ 99¢ $110 $116 +$6 (+6%)
US military draft authorized in 2026? No 90¢ 94¢ $108 $113 +$4 (+4%)
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 29¢ 24¢ $130 $108 −$22 (-17%)
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by June 30? No 79¢ 94¢ $67 $80 +$13 (+20%)
Will Javier Milei win the 2027 Argentina presidential election? Yes 50¢ 48¢ $80 $78 −$2 (-3%)
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? No 96¢ 99¢ $70 $72 +$2 (+3%)
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? No 41¢ 30¢ $82 $59 −$23 (-28%)
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 62¢ 30¢ $100 $49 −$51 (-51%)
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%? Yes 80¢ 78¢ $48 $47 −$1 (-2%)
Will Ukraine re-enter Uspenivka by December 31? Yes 65¢ 33¢ $87 $44 −$43 (-49%)
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? No 56¢ 43¢ $56 $43 −$13 (-23%)
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card) Max Holloway 70¢ 67¢ $40 $38 −$2 (-4%)
Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record? Yes 58¢ 67¢ $30 $35 +$5 (+16%)
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? Yes 40¢ 44¢ $32 $35 +$3 (+9%)
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes 64¢ 74¢ $26 $30 +$4 (+15%)
Will Russia enter Stinky by July 31? Yes 29¢ 38¢ $20 $26 +$6 (+31%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $10 +$10 +94%
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $305 +$464 +152%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $202 +$106 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 16 $209 −$200 -96%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 16 $201 +$10 +5%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $301 +$52 +17%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $201 −$200 -99%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $303 −$300 -99%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $201 +$52 +26%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $202 −$202 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $201 +$65 +32%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $304 −$304 -100%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $856 +$254 +30%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $302 +$64 +21%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $71 +$14 +20%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 13 $662 +$253 +38%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Jun Jun 13 $42 −$42 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Jun Jun 13 $45 −$45 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $254 −$254 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1,014 −$1,014 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $41 −$41 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $62 −$62 -100%
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. Kiwoom Heroes Jun 12 $152 −$152 -100%
KBO: NC Dinos vs. KT Wiz Jun 12 $152 −$152 -100%
KBO: Doosan Bears vs. Kia Tigers Jun 12 $152 +$107 +70%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $204 −$204 -100%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $305 +$404 +132%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 12 $90 −$1 -1%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $454 +$163 +36%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? Jun 11 $200 +$41 +20%
Will Apple release a new product line before 2027? Jun 11 $145 +$23 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 12? Jun 11 $23 −$19 -82%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 12? Jun 11 $6 −$4 -68%
Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the June Meeting? Jun 10 $66 +$9 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 10 $103 −$103 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 10 $156 +$342 +218%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on Jun Jun 09 $19 +$1 +7%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 08 $203 +$35 +17%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 08 $10 +$2 +20%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 08 $50 +$14 +28%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 08 $1,406 +$237 +17%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be 76°F or higher on June Jun 07 $87 −$87 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 07 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 07 $878 +$221 +25%
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switz Jun 07 $12 −$5 -43%
Worst Cup: Fakers FC vs. Infamous FC Jun 07 $129 −$9 -7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $2 1h
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $8 1h
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $10 1h
Will Mark Tedford be the Republican nominee for OK-01? BUY Yes 78¢ $20 9h
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 0.5 BUY Over 39¢ $305 14h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $202 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $209 37h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju BUY Yes 95¢ $201 46h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 19¢ $51 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $102 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 77¢ $201 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 85¢ $301 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $303 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 29¢ $102 2d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 79¢ $201 3d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 71¢ $202 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 75¢ $201 3d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 82¢ $302 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL No 46¢ $86 3d
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $1 4d
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $71 4d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 37¢ $102 4d
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? SELL No 98¢ $342 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 37¢ $71 4d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $304 4d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 98¢ $374 4d
US military draft authorized in 2026? BUY No 89¢ $22 4d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 50¢ $254 5d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $154 5d
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Jun BUY Yes 22¢ $6 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,984.59 · official $3,990.74 (match) · 1734 history records