Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T19:48:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
1D 0x1dbf…dc39 sports 81 markets active 1h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$688 (-22%) realized −$687 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate45%36W / 44L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day12.0pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$55now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$13
7 days−$918
14 days−$863
30 days−$863
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 82% −$878
sports 16% +$28
crypto 1% −$2
world 1% −$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-27.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 53 -30.8% -37.4% 42% 36% -40.9%
≤30d 80 -19.6% -27.3% 45% 40% -35.4%
≤90d 80 -19.6% -27.3% 45% 40% -35.4%
all 80 -19.6% -27.3% 45% 40% -35.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.3% 40% -35.4%
10% -34.3% 36% -41.6%
15% -40.6% 31% -47.3%
20% -46.4% 26% -52.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -29% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -29% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late -23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$29 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.33 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$55
Realized−$687
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses36 / 44
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)80 / 81
History coverage10d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day12.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 80 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 70¢ 68¢ $56 $55 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $73 +$31 +42%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $21 +$14 +67%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $142 +$24 +17%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $58 −$45 -78%
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 20 $7 −$7 -100%
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros Jun 20 $3 +$2 +76%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 20 $3 +$4 +115%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees Jun 20 $5 +$2 +32%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 20 $3 +$5 +142%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 20 $16 +$7 +42%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $30 $0 +0%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $21 +$13 +61%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $11 −$9 -84%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $53 +$49 +93%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $84 −$84 -100%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $84 +$23 +27%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $43 +$10 +22%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 17 $26 −$2 -6%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 17 $8 +$7 +79%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $21 +$4 +20%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 17 $17 +$9 +53%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $73 +$29 +40%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $127 −$64 -50%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $16 −$13 -82%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $53 −$53 -100%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 16 $8 +$4 +46%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 16 $110 +$6 +5%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $16 −$15 -96%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $53 −$48 -91%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,042 −$709 -68%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $126 +$36 +29%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $16 −$16 -100%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 15 $5 +$7 +125%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $59 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $73 21h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 84¢ $31 21h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 39¢ $53 22h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 13¢ $13 22h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 52¢ $58 22h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 17¢ $20 22h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 40¢ $53 23h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 36¢ $17 23h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $36 24h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $21 30h
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Seattle Mariners 51¢ $7 45h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 67¢ $16 45h
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Minnesota Twins 39¢ $3 45h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics BUY Los Angeles Angels 42¢ $3 45h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Colorado Rockies 44¢ $3 45h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals BUY St. Louis Cardinals 53¢ $5 45h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros BUY Houston Astros 54¢ $3 45h
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers BUY San Diego Padres 40¢ $5 45h
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 39¢ $3 45h
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins BUY San Francisco Giants 49¢ $3 45h
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Washington Nationals 42¢ $3 45h
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Chicago White Sox 35¢ $3 45h
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 72¢ $5 45h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 96¢ $30 47h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 2d
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Toronto Blue Jays 21¢ $3 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $21 2d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 18¢ $11 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 49¢ $53 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $54.80 · official $54.80 (match) · 182 history records