Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:09:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1D 0x1dc1…1bd5 crypto 33 markets active 6d ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$12 (-8%) realized −$12 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate52%17W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day43.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-19.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 -11.5% -19.9% 52% 52% -18.6%
≤30d 33 -11.5% -19.9% 52% 52% -18.6%
≤90d 33 -11.5% -19.9% 52% 52% -18.6%
all 33 -11.5% -19.9% 52% 52% -18.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover43.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.9% 52% -18.6%
10% ← realistic here -27.6% 52% -26.4%
15% -34.6% 52% -33.5%
20% -41.0% 52% -40.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$4 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses17 / 16
Open positions0
Markets (closed)33 / 33
History coverage1d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day43.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 33 Trades
no open positions (16 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 11 $4 +$3 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 11 $3 +$2 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 11 $7 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 11 $7 +$5 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 11 $6 +$4 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$4 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 11 $3 +$2 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 11 $4 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 11 $8 −$7 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 11 $9 +$6 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 11 $6 +$4 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 11 $3 +$2 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 11 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 11 $3 +$2 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 11 $3 +$2 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 10 $6 +$4 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 10 $3 +$2 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 10 $3 +$2 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 10 $3 +$2 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 10 $3 +$2 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 10 $6 +$4 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $3 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 60 history records