Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T01:25:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
1D 0x1dc2…a9eb crypto 659 markets active 0h ago coverage 1187d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
Total PnL −$4,003 (-11%) realized −$4,025 · open +$4
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate63%414W / 242L
Whale WR58%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$54per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$30est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$63now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days+$5
14 days−$9
30 days−$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 32% −$255
politics 29% −$4,723
world 24% +$1,183
sports 9% −$169
crypto 6% −$50
weather 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 -16.5% -24.4% 45% 30% -8.5%
≤30d 47 -14.4% -22.6% 47% 30% -11.0%
≤90d 173 -31.0% -37.6% 40% 25% -18.2%
all 656 -1.8% -11.2% 63% 47% -19.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 47% -19.7%
10% -19.7% 32% -27.4%
15% -27.4% 21% -34.4%
20% -34.6% 13% -40.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 58% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +8% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$34 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1187d coverage
Net worth$63
Realized−$4,025
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses414 / 242
Whale WR (big bets)58%
Est. fees paid−$30
Open positions3
Markets (closed)656 / 659
History coverage1187d
Avg bet$54
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 656 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Sweden to win the second half? No 55¢ 57¢ $37 $39 +$2 (+5%)
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score No 83¢ 100¢ $12 $14 +$2 (+20%)
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? No 72¢ 72¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Netherlands vs. Japan: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Under 80¢ $38 $0 −$38 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 15 $44 +$15 +33%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $11 +$1 +8%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $12 −$1 -9%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 14 $10 +$2 +24%
Netherlands vs. Japan: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $38 −$38 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Metizport - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $27 −$27 -100%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $19 −$19 -100%
Germany to win the second half? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Gro Jun 14 $51 −$45 -88%
LoL: Solary vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $35 −$7 -22%
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Metizport - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $12 +$3 +30%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 14 $73 +$74 +102%
Switzerland to win the second half? Jun 13 $39 +$73 +190%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $5 +$3 +59%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $11 −$6 -57%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $21 −$2 -12%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $5 −$1 -21%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $13 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 11 $4 +$4 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 -31%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 29°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 −$1 -52%
Unics Kazan vs. CSKA Moscow Jun 10 $11 +$2 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 27°C on June 9? Jun 10 $4 −$2 -58%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 6? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 31°C on June 10? Jun 10 $5 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 29°C on June 9? Jun 09 $3 $0 -6%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 8? Jun 08 $2 $0 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 28°C on June 8? Jun 08 $2 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 25°C on June 8? Jun 08 $2 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 29°C on June 8? Jun 08 $2 $0 +8%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $6 −$3 -46%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 7? Jun 07 $4 +$2 +44%
Flavio Cobolli vs. Alexander Zverev: Total Sets O/U 4.5 Jun 07 $4 −$2 -58%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 7? Jun 07 $3 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 7? Jun 07 $3 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 7? Jun 07 $4 −$2 -58%
Russia vs. Burkina Faso: O/U 2.5 Jun 06 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 06 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 6? Jun 06 $4 +$4 +90%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 5? Jun 06 $7 −$7 -100%
Russia vs. Burkina Faso: O/U 4.5 Jun 05 $5 $0 +11%
Russia vs. Burkina Faso: O/U 3.5 Jun 05 $4 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 5? Jun 05 $2 +$2 +90%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 6? Jun 05 $1 $0 -16%
Leeds United FC vs. Burnley FC: Both Teams to Score May 05 $7 −$7 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Utah: O/U 5.5 May 05 $12 −$12 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 May 05 $13 −$13 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY No 72¢ $10 2m
Sweden to win the second half? BUY No 55¢ $38 4m
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY No 83¢ $12 1h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 0.5 SELL Under 60¢ $11 1h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 0.5 SELL Under 60¢ $1 1h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 0.5 BUY Under 55¢ $5 1h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 0.5 BUY Under 55¢ $6 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? SELL No 62¢ $11 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY No 67¢ $12 2h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score in Second Half BUY No 75¢ $4 3h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score in Second Half BUY No 75¢ $15 3h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score in Second Half BUY No 75¢ $25 3h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY No 80¢ $10 5h
Netherlands vs. Japan: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 80¢ $38 5h
LoL: Solary vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 4 Winner BUY Solary 63¢ $35 10h
Germany to win the second half? BUY No 13¢ $1 10h
Germany to win the second half? BUY No 13¢ $1 10h
Germany to win the second half? BUY No 13¢ $3 12h
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Metizport - Map 2 Winner BUY Metizport 77¢ $2 13h
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Metizport - Map 2 Winner BUY Metizport 77¢ $5 13h
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Metizport - Map 2 Winner BUY Metizport 77¢ $5 13h
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Metizport - Map 1 Winner BUY fnatic 53¢ $6 14h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Gro SELL Virtus.pro 20¢ $6 15h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 79¢ $27 18h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Gro BUY Virtus.pro 61¢ $51 21h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Under 49¢ $73 27h
Switzerland to win the second half? SELL No 31¢ $1 29h
Switzerland to win the second half? SELL No 31¢ $4 29h
Switzerland to win the second half? BUY No 26¢ $4 29h
Switzerland to win the second half? BUY No 26¢ $2 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $63.45 · official $63.45 (match) · 1880 history records