Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T04:02:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
1D 0x1dc6…61b3 other 6 markets active 223d ago coverage 287d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$4,160 (-38%) realized −$4,160 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate83%5W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,846per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 287d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
tech 45% −$4,940
crypto 33% +$456
economics 10% +$57
sports 9% +$86
other 3% +$181
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 6 -0.9% -10.3% 83% 50% -43.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.3% 50% -43.5%
10% -18.9% 17% -48.9%
15% -26.7% 17% -53.8%
20% -33.9% 0% -58.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 58% · top 2 82% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI — too few recent
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -38% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$156 vs −$4,940 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.16 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

287d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$4,160
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses5 / 1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)6 / 6
History coverage287d
Avg bet$1,846
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 6 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Gold close above $4000 at the end of 2025? Nov 04 $370 +$180 +49%
Will Gold close between $3600 and $3700 at the end of 2025? Nov 04 $6 +$1 +20%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? Nov 04 $1,085 +$57 +5%
Will Ethereum reach $4800 in October? Nov 04 $3,689 +$456 +12%
LoL: Gen.G vs PSG Talon (BO1) Oct 15 $988 +$86 +9%
TikTok banned in the US before May 2025? Jan 21 $4,940 −$4,940 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Gold close above $4000 at the end of 2025? SELL No 37¢ $550 222d
Will Gold close between $3600 and $3700 at the end of 2025? SELL Yes 3¢ $7 222d
Will Gold close above $4000 at the end of 2025? BUY No 25¢ $25 238d
Will Gold close above $4000 at the end of 2025? BUY No 25¢ $1 238d
Will Gold close above $4000 at the end of 2025? BUY No 25¢ $33 238d
Will Gold close above $4000 at the end of 2025? BUY No 25¢ $7 238d
Will Gold close above $4000 at the end of 2025? BUY No 25¢ $7 238d
Will Gold close above $4000 at the end of 2025? BUY No 25¢ $129 238d
Will Gold close above $4000 at the end of 2025? BUY No 25¢ $6 238d
Will Gold close above $4000 at the end of 2025? BUY No 25¢ $10 239d
Will Gold close above $4000 at the end of 2025? BUY No 25¢ $6 239d
Will Gold close above $4000 at the end of 2025? BUY No 25¢ $7 239d
Will Gold close above $4000 at the end of 2025? BUY No 25¢ $50 239d
Will Gold close above $4000 at the end of 2025? BUY No 25¢ $75 239d
Will Gold close above $4000 at the end of 2025? BUY No 25¢ $7 239d
Will Gold close between $3600 and $3700 at the end of 2025? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 239d
Will Gold close between $3600 and $3700 at the end of 2025? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 239d
Will Ethereum reach $4800 in October? BUY No 89¢ $3,689 239d
Will Gold close above $4000 at the end of 2025? BUY No 25¢ $8 239d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? BUY Yes 95¢ $85 241d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? BUY Yes 95¢ $1,000 242d
LoL: Gen.G vs PSG Talon (BO1) BUY Gen.G 92¢ $988 242d
TikTok banned in the US before May 2025? BUY No 1¢ $4,940 509d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 26 history records