Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T04:18:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
1D 0x1dc9…1146 other 158 markets active 2h ago coverage 163d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,740 (-1%) realized −$1,741 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate22%35W / 121L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,205per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$985now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$12
14 days−$26
30 days+$129
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% +$47
politics 37% −$87
sports 9% −$1,808
economics 2% −$1
culture 2% −$6
world 1% +$84
crypto 1% +$5
tech 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-6.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.1% -9.6% 12% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 35 +8.1% -2.2% 14% 9% -9.3%
≤90d 87 +2.6% -7.2% 8% 5% -10.6%
all 156 +3.9% -6.0% 22% 14% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.0% 14% -10.4%
10% -15.0% 14% -18.9%
15% -23.2% 13% -26.8%
20% -30.8% 11% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
37% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,654) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +5% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$24 · ×1.32 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.39 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

163d coverage
Net worth$985
Realized−$1,741
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses35 / 121
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions2
Markets (closed)156 / 158
History coverage163d
Avg bet$1,205
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 156 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $595 $595 −$0 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $389 $390 +$1 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 20 $619 −$1 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $2,848 −$4 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 17 $332 +$1 +0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 17 $770 −$1 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $2,284 −$2 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $714 −$1 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 15 $1,811 −$2 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 15 $738 −$1 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $599 −$1 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $3,573 −$4 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 10 $1,087 −$1 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $843 −$1 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 09 $1,780 −$2 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 08 $997 −$2 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $878 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $1,283 −$2 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $3,324 −$4 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $1,076 −$1 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $1,069 −$2 -0%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Houston Astros Jun 06 $69 +$67 +97%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $4,088 −$4 -0%
Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 03 $64 +$67 +105%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $2,342 −$3 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $2,092 −$3 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $2,334 −$3 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? Jun 01 $424 +$2 +0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $629 −$1 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $395 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $6,000 −$5 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 27 $609 −$1 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 27 $3,290 −$4 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 26 $4,017 −$4 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 25 $860 −$1 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 25 $679 −$1 -0%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 213.5 May 25 $68 +$58 +86%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 22 $1,147 −$2 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $2,566 −$3 -0%
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) May 22 $56 +$39 +70%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 21 $3,820 −$4 -0%
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi May 20 $1,165 −$2 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 10 $1,053 −$2 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 10 $1,229 −$1 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 09 $1,015 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 09 $2,129 −$3 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? May 08 $1,026 −$1 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $1,068 −$1 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $2,255 −$3 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 07 $1,216 −$2 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju May 06 $1,330 −$2 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $2,139 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $596 1h
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $618 43h
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $619 45h
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $479 3d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $480 4d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $769 4d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $770 4d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $653 5d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $654 5d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $713 6d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $714 6d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $587 6d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $587 6d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $737 6d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $738 7d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $598 8d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $599 8d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $610 9d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $611 9d
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? BUY No 100¢ $389 9d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,085 11d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,087 12d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $842 12d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $843 12d
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $799 13d
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $800 13d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $996 13d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $997 13d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $809 13d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $810 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $985.43 · official $985.43 (match) · 561 history records