Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T17:40:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1D 0x1dca…d0af sports 54 markets active 22h ago coverage 66d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$254 (-8%) realized −$298 · open +$44
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate43%22W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$61per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$30est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$769now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8
7 days−$147
14 days−$197
30 days−$322
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 56% −$761
other 43% +$473
tech 1% +$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -19.0% -26.7% 50% 50% -68.9%
≤30d 16 -20.2% -27.8% 38% 38% -33.0%
≤90d 51 +1.0% -8.6% 43% 43% -19.5%
all 51 +1.0% -8.6% 43% 43% -19.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.6% 43% -19.5%
10% -17.3% 43% -27.2%
15% -25.3% 43% -34.2%
20% -32.6% 41% -40.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +15% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$53 vs −$51 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

66d coverage
Net worth$769
Realized−$298
Unrealized+$44
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses22 / 29
Est. fees paid−$30
Open positions3
Markets (closed)51 / 54
History coverage66d
Avg bet$61
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 51 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 13¢ $360 $445 +$85 (+24%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ $240 $179 −$61 (-25%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $125 $145 +$20 (+16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $12 +$8 +67%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $56 −$49 -88%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 13 $125 −$124 -99%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $30 +$17 +56%
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) Jun 05 $51 −$50 -99%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 02 $257 −$257 -100%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $164 +$205 +125%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 30 $179 −$94 -53%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 30 $61 −$61 -100%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $96 +$97 +101%
Spread: Cavaliers (-2.5) May 23 $25 −$25 -99%
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) May 23 $51 −$50 -99%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $12 −$12 -99%
Will Aston Villa win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? May 21 $38 +$84 +223%
Spread: Thunder (-6.5) May 20 $25 −$25 -98%
Spread: Knicks (-7.5) May 20 $13 +$13 +105%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 19 $1 +$2 +197%
Spread: Pistons (-4.5) May 17 $13 −$12 -99%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $25 +$21 +83%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-11? May 11 $75 −$74 -99%
Spread: Thunder (-9.5) May 10 $10 +$10 +101%
Spread: Aston Villa FC (-1.5) May 07 $15 −$15 -99%
Spread: Spurs (-10.5) May 06 $13 −$12 -99%
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 05 $191 −$188 -98%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? May 05 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-04? May 05 $63 +$143 +226%
Spread: Manchester City FC (-1.5) May 04 $76 −$5 -7%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $102 +$243 +238%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $58 +$85 +145%
76ers vs. Celtics May 03 $10 +$24 +238%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? May 02 $13 −$13 -99%
Lakers vs. Rockets May 02 $39 +$56 +146%
Spread: Celtics (-5.5) May 01 $25 +$27 +105%
Rockets vs. Lakers Apr 30 $25 −$25 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Apr 27 $25 +$27 +109%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Apr 26 $25 −$25 -99%
Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5) Apr 25 $38 +$27 +70%
Spurs vs. Trail Blazers Apr 25 $26 +$24 +92%
Spread: Knicks (-5.5) Apr 23 $25 −$25 -100%
Warriors vs. Suns Apr 23 $50 −$50 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets: O/U 231.5 Apr 23 $25 −$25 -100%
Spread: Rockets (-4.5) Apr 23 $25 −$25 -100%
Magic vs. Pistons: O/U 218.5 Apr 20 $12 +$12 +93%
Barcelona Open: Lorenzo Sonego vs Andrey Rublev Apr 17 $4 −$3 -58%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-15? Apr 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Spread: FC Bayern München (-1.5) Apr 16 $26 +$19 +73%
Will Atlético Madrid reach the UEFA Champions League semifinal? Apr 15 $62 −$62 -100%
Spread: Hornets (-5.5) Apr 15 $12 +$13 +101%
Will Barcelona reach the UEFA Champions League semifinal? Apr 15 $30 +$12 +41%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-04-12? Apr 14 $124 −$124 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $12 21h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) SELL Spain 15¢ $6 3d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 59¢ $25 3d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 58¢ $10 3d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 58¢ $20 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 65¢ $125 5d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $240 6d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $360 6d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY Yes 63¢ $30 7d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $31 12d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 12d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $93 12d
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) BUY Spurs 63¢ $51 13d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 64¢ $257 16d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 55¢ $122 19d
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 42¢ $83 19d
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 58¢ $63 21d
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 58¢ $116 21d
Thunder vs. Spurs BUY Thunder 41¢ $61 21d
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-05-24? BUY No 49¢ $20 25d
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-05-24? BUY No 49¢ $76 25d
Spread: Cavaliers (-2.5) BUY Cavaliers 52¢ $25 25d
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) BUY Spurs 55¢ $25 26d
Thunder vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 57¢ $12 26d
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) BUY Spurs 48¢ $25 27d
Spread: Thunder (-6.5) BUY Spurs 48¢ $25 29d
Spread: Knicks (-7.5) BUY Knicks 48¢ $13 30d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 33¢ $1 31d
Spread: Pistons (-4.5) BUY Pistons 51¢ $13 32d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-16? BUY Yes 54¢ $25 33d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $768.84 · official $768.84 (match) · 130 history records