Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T11:22:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1D 0x1dcb…9f08 sports 210 markets active 0h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$334 (-9%) realized −$283 · open −$51
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate37%69W / 120L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day41.5pace
Fees−$73est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$264now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$141
7 days−$221
14 days−$364
30 days−$364
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% −$329
crypto 3% −$72
other 0% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-21.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 168 -9.0% -17.7% 38% 38% -16.4%
≤30d 189 -13.0% -21.3% 37% 36% -19.8%
≤90d 189 -13.0% -21.3% 37% 36% -19.8%
all 189 -13.0% -21.3% 37% 36% -19.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover41.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.3% 36% -19.8%
10% ← realistic here -28.8% 35% -27.5%
15% -35.7% 33% -34.5%
20% -42.0% 33% -40.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -35% → late +8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$16 · ×1.41 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$264
Realized−$283
Unrealized−$51
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses69 / 120
Est. fees paid−$73
Open positions21
Markets (closed)189 / 210
History coverage7d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day41.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 21 History 189 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Set 1 Winner: Newberry vs Wildgruber Wildgruber 48¢ 99¢ $15 $31 +$16 (+107%)
Set 1 Winner: Kalinskaya vs Ruse Ruse 50¢ 76¢ $15 $23 +$8 (+53%)
Set 1 Winner: Berkieta vs Compagnucci Berkieta 47¢ 49¢ $15 $16 +$1 (+5%)
Set 1 Winner: Bulgaru vs Ewald Ewald 47¢ 46¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-3%)
Set 1 Winner: Zeitune vs Zanellato Zanellato 49¢ 47¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-4%)
Set 1 Winner: Nardi vs Virtanen Nardi 34¢ 32¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-4%)
Set 1 Winner: Pridankina vs Lamens Pridankina 50¢ 48¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-4%)
Set 1 Winner: Gaubas vs Searle Gaubas 31¢ 30¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-5%)
Set 1 Winner: Smith vs Echargui Echargui 37¢ 35¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-6%)
Set 1 Winner: Hardt vs Oliveira Oliveira 31¢ 29¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-6%)
Set 1 Winner: Aguilar vs Estevez Aguilar 45¢ 42¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-7%)
Set 1 Winner: Thomas vs Tabacco Thomas 30¢ 28¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-8%)
Set 1 Winner: Jubb vs Barrios Jubb 50¢ 46¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-8%)
Set 1 Winner: Mikulskyte vs Bronzetti Mikulskyte 26¢ 24¢ $15 $13 −$2 (-10%)
Set 1 Winner: Safiullin vs Coppejans Coppejans 29¢ 26¢ $15 $13 −$2 (-12%)
Set 1 Winner: Zheng vs Tauson Tauson 48¢ 40¢ $15 $13 −$2 (-15%)
Set 1 Winner: Ostapenko vs Udvardy Udvardy 29¢ 24¢ $15 $12 −$3 (-17%)
Set 1 Winner: Miron vs Todoni Miron 29¢ 1¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-98%)
Set 1 Winner: Anavatan vs Tepmahc Anavatan 35¢ 1¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-98%)
Set 1 Winner: Bu vs Tabur Tabur 31¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Set 1 Winner: Yoruk vs Mi Yoruk 48¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 113 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Set 1 Winner: Basing vs Gentzsch Jun 24 $15 +$22 +141%
Set 1 Winner: Kopriva vs Buse Jun 24 $15 +$11 +71%
Set 1 Winner: D'agostino vs Iannaccone Jun 24 $15 +$23 +152%
Set 1 Winner: Grzegorzewski vs Kamrowski Jun 24 $15 −$1 -5%
Set 1 Winner: Wehnelt vs Pieri Jun 24 $15 +$18 +116%
Set 1 Winner: Alexandrova vs Andreeva Jun 24 $15 +$24 +156%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 24 $6 −$6 -96%
Set 1 Winner: Feistel vs Diaz Jun 24 $15 −$15 -100%
Set 1 Winner: Mikovic vs Figl Jun 24 $15 +$16 +105%
Set 1 Winner: Zhenikhova vs Weckerle Jun 24 $15 +$22 +145%
Set 1 Winner: Onclin vs Mochizuki Jun 24 $15 −$15 -98%
Set 1 Winner: Atay vs Vasileva Jun 24 $15 +$27 +177%
Set 1 Winner: Tanasie vs Balan Jun 24 $15 +$28 +180%
Set 1 Winner: Maneiro vs Keys Jun 24 $15 −$15 -98%
Set 1 Winner: Topo vs Krumich Jun 24 $15 −$15 -98%
Set 1 Winner: Martineau vs Nesterov Jun 24 $15 −$15 -98%
Set 1 Winner: Salazar vs Elkady Jun 24 $15 −$15 -98%
Set 1 Winner: Kumar vs Mikovic Jun 24 $15 −$15 -98%
Set 1 Winner: Alves vs Taborda Jun 24 $15 −$15 -98%
Set 1 Winner: Mencaglia vs Caruso Jun 24 $15 −$15 -98%
Set 1 Winner: Hejtmanek vs Bojovic Jun 24 $15 −$15 -98%
Set 1 Winner: Meza vs Cretu Jun 24 $15 −$15 -98%
Set 1 Winner: Uemura vs Kosaka Jun 24 $15 +$36 +237%
Set 1 Winner: Kitahara vs Naklo Jun 24 $15 −$15 -98%
Set 1 Winner: Jang vs Liu Jun 24 $15 −$15 -98%
Set 1 Winner: Desvignes vs Moon Jun 24 $15 −$15 -98%
Set 1 Winner: Snigireva vs Matsuda Jun 24 $15 −$15 -98%
Set 1 Winner: Hanatani vs Yang Jun 24 $15 −$15 -98%
Set 1 Winner: Marginean vs Davies Jun 24 $15 −$15 -98%
Set 1 Winner: Humbert vs Bellucci Jun 23 $15 −$15 -100%
Set 1 Winner: Kinoshita vs Tomova Jun 23 $15 +$15 +96%
Set 1 Winner: Birrell vs Krejcikova Jun 23 $15 +$24 +159%
Set 1 Winner: McDonald vs Kalieva Jun 23 $15 +$14 +92%
Set 1 Winner: Darderi vs Hanfmann Jun 23 $15 +$17 +114%
Set 1 Winner: Ku vs Kostovic Jun 23 $15 −$15 -100%
Set 1 Winner: Samsonova vs Svitolina Jun 23 $15 +$25 +163%
Set 1 Winner: Grabher vs Bolkvadze Jun 23 $15 +$16 +102%
Set 1 Winner: Henning vs Santamarta Jun 23 $15 +$18 +118%
Set 1 Winner: Tsitsipas vs Buse Jun 23 $15 +$17 +114%
Set 1 Winner: Sonmez vs Dart Jun 23 $15 +$23 +153%
Set 1 Winner: Kuzmanov vs Sels Jun 23 $15 +$33 +218%
Set 1 Winner: Papamichail vs Liu Jun 23 $15 −$15 -100%
Set 1 Winner: Damas vs Hassan Jun 23 $15 +$18 +121%
Set 1 Winner: Boluda vs Gjorcheska Jun 23 $15 +$15 +100%
Set 1 Winner: Vandromme vs Yuan Jun 23 $15 −$15 -98%
Set 1 Winner: Arnaldi vs Hussey Jun 23 $15 +$22 +147%
Set 1 Winner: Vasilev vs Visker Jun 23 $15 −$15 -98%
Set 1 Winner: Sun vs Klimovicova Jun 23 $15 +$17 +109%
Set 1 Winner: Salkova vs Shymanovich Jun 23 $15 +$24 +158%
Set 1 Winner: Akugue vs Pigato Jun 23 $15 +$28 +180%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Set 1 Winner: Basing vs Gentzsch SELL Basing 100¢ $37 7m
Set 1 Winner: Kopriva vs Buse SELL Kopriva 83¢ $26 8m
Set 1 Winner: D'agostino vs Iannaccone SELL Dagostino 100¢ $38 8m
Set 1 Winner: Nardi vs Virtanen BUY Nardi 34¢ $15 1h
Set 1 Winner: Mikulskyte vs Bronzetti BUY Mikulskyte 26¢ $15 1h
Set 1 Winner: Gaubas vs Searle BUY Gaubas 31¢ $15 1h
Set 1 Winner: Pridankina vs Lamens BUY Pridankina 50¢ $15 1h
Set 1 Winner: Jubb vs Barrios BUY Jubb 50¢ $15 1h
Set 1 Winner: Grzegorzewski vs Kamrowski SELL Grzegorzewski 49¢ $14 1h
Set 1 Winner: Wehnelt vs Pieri SELL Wehnelt 99¢ $33 1h
Set 1 Winner: Alexandrova vs Andreeva SELL Alexandrova 100¢ $39 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $6 2h
Set 1 Winner: Berkieta vs Compagnucci BUY Berkieta 47¢ $15 2h
Set 1 Winner: Ostapenko vs Udvardy BUY Udvardy 29¢ $15 2h
Set 1 Winner: Mikovic vs Figl SELL Mikovic 100¢ $31 2h
Set 1 Winner: Safiullin vs Coppejans BUY Coppejans 29¢ $15 2h
Set 1 Winner: Smith vs Echargui BUY Echargui 37¢ $15 2h
Set 1 Winner: Zhenikhova vs Weckerle SELL Zhenikhova 100¢ $37 2h
Set 1 Winner: Kopriva vs Buse BUY Kopriva 47¢ $15 3h
Set 1 Winner: Kalinskaya vs Ruse BUY Ruse 50¢ $15 3h
Set 1 Winner: Onclin vs Mochizuki BUY Onclin 50¢ $15 3h
Set 1 Winner: Atay vs Vasileva SELL Vasileva 99¢ $42 3h
Set 1 Winner: Zheng vs Tauson BUY Tauson 48¢ $15 3h
Set 1 Winner: Basing vs Gentzsch BUY Basing 41¢ $15 3h
Set 1 Winner: Grzegorzewski vs Kamrowski BUY Grzegorzewski 50¢ $15 3h
Set 1 Winner: Tanasie vs Balan SELL Balan 100¢ $43 3h
Set 1 Winner: Maneiro vs Keys BUY Maneiro 30¢ $15 4h
Set 1 Winner: Bu vs Tabur BUY Tabur 31¢ $15 4h
Set 1 Winner: Topo vs Krumich BUY Topo 49¢ $15 4h
Set 1 Winner: Martineau vs Nesterov BUY Martineau 50¢ $15 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $263.56 · official $263.56 (match) · 312 history records