Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:09:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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1D 0x1dcc…e90e crypto 1596 markets active 1d ago coverage 72d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 72d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$195 (-12%) realized −$195 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate53%842W / 754L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day22.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$26
14 days−$78
30 days−$86
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$129
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-15.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 263 -11.7% -20.1% 54% 52% -18.2%
≤30d 959 -9.5% -18.1% 54% 52% -17.4%
≤90d 1596 -6.3% -15.2% 53% 50% -16.8%
all 1596 -6.3% -15.2% 53% 50% -16.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.2% 50% -16.8%
10% ← realistic here -23.3% 48% -24.7%
15% -30.8% 43% -32.0%
20% -37.5% 37% -38.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

72d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$195
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses842 / 754
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1596 / 1596
History coverage72d ⚠
Avg bet$1
Trades / day22.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1596 Trades
no open positions (26 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +46%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $1 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $1 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $1 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $1 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records