Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T16:40:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1D 0x1dcd…78db crypto 143 markets active 5d ago coverage 100d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$17 (-2%) realized −$17 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate54%77W / 66L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$13
14 days−$13
30 days−$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 40% −$32
crypto 39% +$28
weather 16% −$14
other 4% −$13
tech 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -71.7% -74.4% 20% 20% -83.9%
≤30d 5 -71.7% -74.4% 20% 20% -83.9%
≤90d 92 -17.5% -25.4% 41% 36% -18.0%
all 143 -1.3% -10.7% 54% 45% -12.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 45% -12.7%
10% -19.3% 40% -21.1%
15% -27.1% 36% -28.7%
20% -34.2% 34% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late -14% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$5 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

100d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses77 / 66
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)143 / 143
History coverage100d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 143 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $2 +$1 +42%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -98%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Colorado Rockies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates May 13 $51 −$50 -99%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Cleveland Guardians May 13 $2 +$1 +73%
Sabres vs. Canadiens May 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Lakers vs. Thunder May 12 $30 −$4 -14%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 12 $30 −$4 -12%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 12 $15 +$3 +21%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 12 $10 $0 -1%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Knicks vs. 76ers May 10 $41 +$35 +86%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 09 $20 −$20 -100%
Knicks vs. 76ers May 09 $30 +$30 +98%
Lakers vs. Thunder May 08 $8 +$1 +8%
Hurricanes vs. Flyers May 08 $20 +$6 +29%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 08 $20 +$6 +29%
AHL: Ontario Reign vs. Coachella Valley Firebirds May 07 $5 −$2 -33%
AHL: Providence Bruins vs. Springfield Thunderbirds May 07 $10 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET May 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET May 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? May 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Wild vs. Avalanche May 06 $10 +$5 +52%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 06 $2 +$1 +67%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-05? May 05 $10 +$6 +60%
76ers vs. Knicks May 05 $6 +$2 +40%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-04? May 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET May 01 $2 +$2 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Apr 29 $3 +$4 +118%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Apr 28 $2 +$2 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Apr 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Apr 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Apr 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Apr 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Apr 26 $10 +$19 +188%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Apr 25 $2 +$2 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Apr 25 $7 +$8 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Apr 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Apr 25 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Apr 13 $15 +$12 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Apr 13 $2 −$1 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Apr 13 $2 +$2 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Apr 13 $9 +$5 +54%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on April 8? Apr 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 5°C on April 8? Apr 08 $2 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on April 7? Apr 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 4°C on April 8? Apr 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $5 5d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $2 5d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 6d
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $2 6d
Pistons vs. Cavaliers BUY Cavaliers 62¢ $20 34d
Colorado Rockies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 63¢ $30 35d
Colorado Rockies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 63¢ $20 35d
Sabres vs. Canadiens BUY Canadiens 59¢ $10 36d
Los Angeles Angels vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Cleveland Guardians 57¢ $2 36d
Timberwolves vs. Spurs SELL Spurs 77¢ $10 37d
Thunder vs. Lakers BUY Thunder 82¢ $5 37d
Timberwolves vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 77¢ $10 38d
Thunder vs. Lakers BUY Thunder 56¢ $30 38d
Lakers vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 57¢ $30 38d
Thunder vs. Lakers BUY Thunder 82¢ $10 38d
Spurs vs. Timberwolves BUY Spurs 65¢ $10 38d
Knicks vs. 76ers BUY Knicks 53¢ $41 39d
Pistons vs. Cavaliers BUY Pistons 39¢ $20 40d
Knicks vs. 76ers SELL Knicks 100¢ $60 40d
Knicks vs. 76ers BUY Knicks 49¢ $10 41d
Lakers vs. Thunder SELL Thunder 100¢ $6 41d
Hurricanes vs. Flyers BUY Hurricanes 61¢ $10 41d
Knicks vs. 76ers BUY Knicks 50¢ $10 42d
Lakers vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 88¢ $5 42d
Knicks vs. 76ers BUY Knicks 50¢ $10 42d
Cavaliers vs. Pistons BUY Pistons 61¢ $10 42d
Cavaliers vs. Pistons SELL Pistons 60¢ $10 42d
Cavaliers vs. Pistons BUY Pistons 61¢ $10 42d
AHL: Ontario Reign vs. Coachella Valley Firebirds SELL Ontario Reign 55¢ $3 42d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 365 history records