Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T06:39:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
1D 0x1dd0…eb3c world 10 markets active 2h ago coverage 81d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$24 (-1%) realized −$24 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate33%3W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$301per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$390now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 53% +$2
sports 32% −$27
politics 15% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-29.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 2 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 9 -21.7% -29.1% 33% 0% -10.4%
all 9 -21.7% -29.1% 33% 0% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.1% 0% -10.4%
10% -35.9% 0% -19.0%
15% -42.1% 0% -26.8%
20% -47.8% 0% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 59% · top 2 89% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$24 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

81d coverage
Net worth$390
Realized−$24
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses3 / 6
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)9 / 10
History coverage81d
Avg bet$301
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026? No 95¢ 95¢ $390 $390 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the U.S. invade Colombia in 2026? Jun 27 $390 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture Serhiivka by July 31? Jun 18 $298 $0 +0%
Spread: Sønderjyske Fodbold (-2.5) May 09 $464 +$7 +2%
Will Italy send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026? May 08 $469 +$2 +0%
Spread: Tala'ea El Gaish SC (-2.5) May 08 $455 +$14 +3%
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in May 2026? May 07 $455 $0 +0%
Spread: FC Fredericia (-2.5) Apr 23 $18 −$18 -100%
Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by June 30? Apr 23 $45 $0 +0%
Spread: Aalesunds FK (-2.5) Apr 07 $30 −$30 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026? BUY No 95¢ $390 1h
Will the U.S. invade Colombia in 2026? SELL No 95¢ $390 1h
Will the U.S. invade Colombia in 2026? BUY No 95¢ $390 3h
Will Russia capture Serhiivka by July 31? SELL No 93¢ $298 9d
Will Russia capture Serhiivka by July 31? BUY No 93¢ $298 9d
Spread: Sønderjyske Fodbold (-2.5) BUY Viborg FF 98¢ $464 49d
Will Italy send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $471 50d
Will Italy send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $469 50d
Spread: Tala'ea El Gaish SC (-2.5) BUY Ghazl El Mahalla SC 97¢ $455 51d
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in May 2026? SELL No 98¢ $455 51d
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in May 2026? BUY No 98¢ $455 51d
Spread: FC Fredericia (-2.5) BUY FC Fredericia 2¢ $9 65d
Spread: FC Fredericia (-2.5) BUY FC Fredericia 2¢ $7 65d
Spread: FC Fredericia (-2.5) BUY FC Fredericia 2¢ $2 65d
Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $22 65d
Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $23 65d
Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $23 65d
Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $18 65d
Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 65d
Spread: Aalesunds FK (-2.5) SELL Aalesunds FK 6¢ $0 80d
Spread: Aalesunds FK (-2.5) BUY Aalesunds FK 7¢ $7 80d
Spread: Aalesunds FK (-2.5) BUY Aalesunds FK 7¢ $8 80d
Spread: Aalesunds FK (-2.5) BUY Aalesunds FK 7¢ $7 80d
Spread: Aalesunds FK (-2.5) BUY Aalesunds FK 7¢ $7 80d
Spread: Aalesunds FK (-2.5) BUY Aalesunds FK 7¢ $0 80d
Spread: Aalesunds FK (-2.5) BUY Aalesunds FK 7¢ $0 80d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $389.50 · official $389.50 (match) · 28 history records