Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T00:04:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
1D 0x1dd1…7040 sports 664 markets active 2h ago coverage 199d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$2,027 (-4%) realized −$2,003 · open −$24
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate58%385W / 276L
Whale WR75%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$71per market
Trades / day5.4pace
Fees−$206est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$1,051now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$112
7 days−$142
14 days−$551
30 days−$687
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 85% −$1,451
other 9% −$623
crypto 4% +$52
politics 2% −$202
tech 0% +$33
economics 0% −$27
world 0% −$6
weather 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-13.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -6.3% -15.2% 62% 56% -11.1%
≤30d 124 -6.6% -15.5% 61% 56% -13.2%
≤90d 310 -4.0% -13.2% 61% 54% -12.4%
all 661 -4.8% -13.9% 58% 48% -13.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.9% 48% -13.9%
10% -22.1% 35% -22.1%
15% -29.6% 23% -29.6%
20% -36.5% 15% -36.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 75% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -7% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$35 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

199d coverage
Net worth$1,051
Realized−$2,003
Unrealized−$24
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses385 / 276
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Est. fees paid−$206
Open positions3
Markets (closed)661 / 664
History coverage199d
Avg bet$71
Trades / day5.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 661 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 1.5 Over 88¢ 100¢ $800 $909 +$109 (+14%)
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 Over 78¢ 36¢ $250 $114 −$136 (-54%)
Netherlands to score first vs. Tunisia? Yes 86¢ 100¢ $25 $29 +$4 (+16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 127 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $101 −$65 -64%
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $100 +$17 +17%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $202 −$1 -0%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $252 +$61 +24%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 4.5 Jun 25 $502 +$80 +16%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $201 +$46 +23%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $20 +$4 +22%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $51 −$31 -61%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $1,205 −$1,200 -100%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $502 +$73 +14%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $50 +$7 +13%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $1,660 +$508 +31%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $101 −$2 -2%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $101 +$34 +34%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $101 −$58 -58%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $1,008 +$342 +34%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $20 +$9 +45%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $51 −$28 -55%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $101 +$20 +20%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $25 +$19 +73%
Germany to score first vs. Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $25 −$25 -99%
Netherlands to score first vs. Sweden? Jun 20 $51 +$29 +57%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $101 +$20 +20%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $101 −$75 -75%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $50 +$3 +5%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $1,126 +$112 +10%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $50 +$15 +30%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $51 −$50 -99%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $101 −$26 -26%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $20 −$20 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $101 +$29 +29%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $50 +$11 +23%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $50 +$9 +18%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $50 +$17 +34%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $101 +$23 +23%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $50 −$50 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $51 +$29 +57%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $101 +$33 +33%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $50 −$25 -50%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $51 +$25 +50%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $101 +$28 +27%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $101 −$66 -65%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $252 +$81 +32%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $981 +$40 +4%
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Jun 15 $110 −$16 -15%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $1,403 −$507 -36%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $51 −$50 -99%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $252 +$110 +43%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $25 +$15 +59%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 88¢ $803 1h
Netherlands to score first vs. Tunisia? BUY Yes 86¢ $25 1h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 78¢ $252 1h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 25¢ $36 3h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 68¢ $101 4h
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 85¢ $100 22h
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 86¢ $502 26h
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 80¢ $252 26h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 71¢ $201 27h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 95¢ $25 28h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 77¢ $20 29h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 81¢ $201 29h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 70¢ $202 29h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 18¢ $20 45h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $51 2d
England vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 85¢ $1,205 2d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 87¢ $502 2d
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 88¢ $50 2d
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 76¢ $1,660 3d
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 64¢ $99 3d
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 64¢ $101 3d
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $135 3d
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 74¢ $101 3d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 34¢ $42 4d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 78¢ $101 4d
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $1,350 4d
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 74¢ $1,008 4d
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 30¢ $23 4d
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 64¢ $51 5d
Germany to score first vs. Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 68¢ $25 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,051.47 · official $1,048.27 (match) · 1385 history records