Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T08:29:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
1D 0x1dd5…f1dc world 12 markets active 2h ago coverage 96d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$97 (+2%) realized +$93 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate36%4W / 7L
Drawdown3%max
Avg bet$339per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$374now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$3
30 days+$31
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 56% +$7
other 23% +$34
sports 21% +$55
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 4 +1.6% -8.1% 25% 0% -7.7%
≤90d 11 +1.3% -8.3% 36% 9% -7.3%
all 11 +1.3% -8.3% 36% 9% -7.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.3% 9% -7.3%
10% -17.1% 0% -16.2%
15% -25.1% 0% -24.3%
20% -32.4% 0% -31.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 90% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$1 · ×16.35 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×21.8 per $1 lost it wins $21.8
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

96d coverage
Net worth$374
Realized+$93
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses4 / 7
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)11 / 12
History coverage96d
Avg bet$339
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown3%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Greece send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026? No 95¢ 96¢ $370 $374 +$4 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture Sloviansk by December 31? Jun 28 $372 $0 +0%
Russia coup attempt in 2026? Jun 19 $267 −$3 -1%
Game 1: Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor? Jun 02 $464 +$34 +7%
Thailand strikes Cambodia by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $463 $0 +0%
Spread: Vålerenga Fotball (-2.5) May 28 $487 +$52 +11%
Will Russia enter Stinky by May 31? May 25 $482 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 08 $102 +$6 +6%
Spread: Qingdao Xihaian FC (-2.5) Apr 18 $363 +$4 +1%
Will Iran strike France by April 30, 2026? Apr 17 $364 $0 +0%
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 20 Apr 16 $320 $0 -0%
Valorant: MYVRA GC vs No Sweat Blossom (BO3) - VCT Game Changers Latin Apr 01 $16 −$2 -9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Greece send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 202 BUY No 95¢ $370 1h
Will Russia capture Sloviansk by December 31? SELL No 93¢ $372 1h
Will Russia capture Sloviansk by December 31? BUY No 93¢ $372 5h
Russia coup attempt in 2026? SELL No 91¢ $264 9d
Russia coup attempt in 2026? BUY No 92¢ $267 10d
Game 1: Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor? BUY No 93¢ $464 27d
Thailand strikes Cambodia by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $463 27d
Thailand strikes Cambodia by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $463 27d
Spread: Vålerenga Fotball (-2.5) SELL IK Start 100¢ $539 31d
Spread: Vålerenga Fotball (-2.5) BUY IK Start 90¢ $487 34d
Will Russia enter Stinky by May 31? SELL No 91¢ $482 34d
Will Russia enter Stinky by May 31? BUY No 91¢ $482 34d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 36¢ $108 51d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 34¢ $9 51d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 34¢ $93 51d
Spread: Qingdao Xihaian FC (-2.5) BUY Qingdao Hainiu FC 99¢ $363 72d
Will Iran strike France by April 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $165 72d
Will Iran strike France by April 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $99 72d
Will Iran strike France by April 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $99 72d
Will Iran strike France by April 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $364 72d
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 20 SELL No 92¢ $10 73d
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 20 SELL No 92¢ $310 73d
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 20 BUY No 92¢ $320 73d
Valorant: MYVRA GC vs No Sweat Blossom (BO3) - VCT Game Changers Latin BUY MYVRA GC 55¢ $16 95d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $374.20 · official $374.20 (match) · 28 history records