Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:00:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
1D 0x1dd8…9d40 crypto 29 markets active 1d ago coverage 159d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$280 (+3%) realized +$306 · open −$26
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate43%12W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$300per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$966now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$69
7 days−$23
14 days−$35
30 days−$35
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 51% +$912
other 35% +$41
world 12% −$721
sports 3% −$92
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-24.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -16.6% -24.6% 50% 0% -11.0%
≤30d 3 -13.1% -21.4% 33% 0% -11.5%
≤90d 3 -13.1% -21.4% 33% 0% -11.5%
all 28 -16.7% -24.7% 43% 29% -6.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.7% 29% -6.8%
10% -31.9% 21% -15.7%
15% -38.5% 14% -23.8%
20% -44.5% 14% -31.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 69% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% too few recent
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +25% → late -58% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$125 vs −$83 · ×1.5 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.12 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

159d coverage
Net worth$966
Realized+$306
Unrealized−$26
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses12 / 16
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions1
Markets (closed)28 / 29
History coverage159d
Avg bet$300
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 28 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $991 $966 −$26 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $1,144 +$69 +6%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $233 −$92 -39%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $198 −$12 -6%
US strikes Iran by March 9, 2026? Feb 28 $40 −$40 -100%
US strikes Iran by March 10, 2026? Feb 28 $40 −$40 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on February 9? Feb 28 $156 +$301 +193%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on February 12? Feb 28 $187 −$187 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 28 $37 −$37 -100%
US strikes Iran by March 2, 2026? Feb 28 $72 −$68 -94%
US strikes Iran by March 3, 2026? Feb 28 $100 −$95 -95%
US strikes Iran by March 4, 2026? Feb 28 $100 −$95 -95%
US strikes Iran by March 5, 2026? Feb 28 $100 −$95 -95%
US strikes Iran by March 6, 2026? Feb 28 $100 −$94 -94%
US strikes Iran by March 7, 2026? Feb 28 $100 −$94 -94%
US strikes Iran by March 8, 2026? Feb 28 $100 −$95 -95%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on February 11? Feb 11 $148 +$39 +27%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on February 10? Feb 11 $120 +$28 +24%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on February 7? Feb 09 $108 +$129 +119%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on February 8? Feb 08 $133 −$133 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on February 7? Feb 07 $139 −$130 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on February 2? Feb 02 $65 +$74 +114%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on January 30? Feb 01 $1,043 +$6 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on January 30? Jan 30 $941 +$41 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on January 29? Jan 29 $957 −$23 -2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on January 30? Jan 29 $178 +$730 +410%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on January 29? Jan 29 $282 +$37 +13%
Odds of Khamenei out by February over 30% in January? Jan 29 $132 +$10 +7%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Jan 22 $212 +$32 +15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $7 24h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $1,013 24h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $1,019 24h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $30 5d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $104 5d
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 4¢ $104 5d
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 6¢ $38 5d
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 6¢ $37 5d
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $193 5d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $194 5d
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 5d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $368 5d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $455 5d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 5¢ $457 5d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $186 7d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $186 7d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $198 9d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $3 9d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $509 9d
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $4 109d
US strikes Iran by March 2, 2026? SELL No 0¢ $4 109d
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $5 109d
US strikes Iran by March 3, 2026? SELL No 0¢ $5 109d
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $10 109d
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $6 109d
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $11 109d
US strikes Iran by March 4, 2026? SELL No 0¢ $5 109d
US strikes Iran by March 5, 2026? SELL No 0¢ $5 109d
US strikes Iran by March 6, 2026? SELL No 0¢ $6 109d
US strikes Iran by March 7, 2026? SELL No 0¢ $6 109d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $965.58 · official $965.58 (match) · 106 history records