Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T14:43:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1D 0x1dd8…bafd crypto 64 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$10 (+2%) realized +$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate89%57W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day36.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-5.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 64 +4.0% -5.9% 89% 41% -10.8%
≤30d 64 +4.0% -5.9% 89% 41% -10.8%
≤90d 64 +4.0% -5.9% 89% 41% -10.8%
all 64 +4.0% -5.9% 89% 41% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover36.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.9% 41% -10.8%
10% ← realistic here -14.9% 12% -19.4%
15% -23.1% 5% -27.1%
20% -30.6% 2% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
53% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +14% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$8 · ×0.11 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)89%
Wins / losses57 / 7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)64 / 64
History coverage6d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day36.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 64 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $12 −$12 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $7 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $8 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 16 $7 +$2 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$7 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $9 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 16 $12 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 12 $16 −$16 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 12 $15 −$7 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 12 $6 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 12 $21 +$11 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 12 $21 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 12 $30 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 12 $33 −$6 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 12 $11 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 12 $30 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 12 $11 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 12 $6 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 12 $11 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 12 $33 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 12 $11 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 12 $6 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 12 $11 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 12 $8 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 12 $8 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 12 $18 +$3 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 11 $6 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 11 $12 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 11 $4 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 11 $4 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 11 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 11 $8 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 11 $6 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $1 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $1 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $3 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $3 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $3 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $1 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $1 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $3 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $3 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $3 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $3 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $3 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $3 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $3 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $3 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET SELL Up 32¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $3 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 253 history records