Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T17:43:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
1D 0x1dde…f6bf crypto 34 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$81 (+7%) realized +$79 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR94%break-even
Win rate94%29W / 2L
Drawdown43%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day35.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$92now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$112
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +94%
net ROI/market (all)+2.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 +13.0% +2.3% 94% 94% -0.4%
≤30d 31 +13.0% +2.3% 94% 94% -0.4%
≤90d 31 +13.0% +2.3% 94% 94% -0.4%
all 31 +13.0% +2.3% 94% 94% -0.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover35.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +2.3% 94% -0.4%
10% ← realistic here -7.5% 16% -10.0%
15% -16.5% 0% -18.7%
20% -24.7% 0% -26.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late +16% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$37 · ×0.17 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.47 per $1 lost it wins $2.47
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$92
Realized+$79
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)94%
Wins / losses29 / 2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)31 / 34
History coverage1d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day35.0
Drawdown43%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Up 81¢ 88¢ $30 $33 +$3 (+9%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Up 81¢ 88¢ $30 $32 +$2 (+8%)
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Down 85¢ 76¢ $30 $27 −$3 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 25 $30 +$6 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 25 $30 +$5 +16%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 25 $31 +$7 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 25 $61 −$25 -40%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 25 $31 +$7 +23%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 25 $31 +$7 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 25 $30 +$6 +20%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 25 $31 +$6 +21%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 25 $30 +$6 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 25 $30 +$5 +17%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 25 $26 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 25 $30 +$5 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 25 $31 +$7 +23%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 25 $30 +$6 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 25 $30 +$5 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 25 $31 +$7 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 25 $30 +$5 +15%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 25 $31 +$7 +23%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 25 $30 +$5 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 25 $51 +$10 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 25 $30 +$5 +17%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 25 $30 +$6 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 25 $51 +$8 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 25 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 25 $51 +$9 +19%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 25 $30 +$5 +17%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 25 $31 +$7 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 25 $51 +$12 +23%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 25 $30 +$5 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 25 $51 +$8 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 25 $30 +$4 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $30 3m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $31 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $31 5m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $30 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $30 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $30 32m
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $31 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $30 35m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $31 48m
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $31 49m
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $31 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $30 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $30 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $31 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $31 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $26 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $30 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $31 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $30 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $30 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $51 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $30 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $51 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $51 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $30 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $31 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $30 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $92.19 · official $92.19 (match) · 65 history records