Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T15:02:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1D 0x1de1…2cf1 sports 1081 markets active 2h ago coverage 72d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$22 (-0%) realized −$22 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate99%1065W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day16.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$3
14 days+$4
30 days+$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 62% −$43
other 17% +$9
weather 15% +$8
crypto 2% +$1
finance 2% +$1
tech 1% +$1
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 51 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 220 +0.1% -9.4% 96% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 1081 -0.0% -9.6% 99% 0% -9.6%
all 1081 -0.0% -9.6% 99% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 0% · top 2 0% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$6 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

72d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$22
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)99%
Wins / losses1065 / 16
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1081 / 1081
History coverage72d
Avg bet$49
Trades / day16.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1081 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Carlini vs. Blaydes: Set 2 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 18 $50 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 18 $50 $0 +0%
Will Panama go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Jun 18 $50 $0 +0%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Portugal to win the second half? Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5 Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Spread: Norway (-3.5) Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Nikkei 225 (NIK) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $50 $0 +0%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? Jun 16 $50 $0 +0%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $50 $0 +0%
Royan: Ognjen Milic vs Thomas Faurel Jun 15 $50 $0 +0%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 9-15? Jun 15 $50 $0 +0%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $50 $0 +0%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $50 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $50 $0 +0%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $50 $0 +0%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 14 $50 $0 +0%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $50 $0 +0%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $50 $0 +0%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $50 $0 +0%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $50 $0 +0%
Will OG Anunoby win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $50 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Haiti 1 - 3 Scotland? Jun 14 $50 $0 +0%
Knicks vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 111.5 Jun 14 $50 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Morocco? Jun 14 $50 $0 +0%
Will George Russell get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand P Jun 13 $50 $0 +0%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: RUSTEC (-9.5) vs HEROIC Academy (+9.5) Jun 13 $20 $0 +0%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Jun 13 $50 $0 +0%
SpaceX IPO: Will Elon Musk Ring the Bell? Jun 12 $50 $0 +0%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on Jun 12 $50 $0 +0%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by June 30? Jun 12 $50 $0 +0%
Game Handicap: KCB (-1.5) vs Forsaken (+1.5) Jun 12 $50 $0 +0%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on Jun 12 $50 $0 +0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $50 $0 +0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? Jun 12 $50 $0 +0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $50 $0 +0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $50 $0 +0%
BC Zenit vs. Lokomotiv Kuban Jun 12 $50 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 2 - 1 Czechia? Jun 12 $50 $0 +0%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $50 $0 +0%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $86 on June 11? Jun 11 $50 $0 +0%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $50 $0 +0%
LoL: G2 NORD vs Galions - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $50 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Carlini vs. Blaydes: Set 2 Games O/U 10.5 BUY Under 100¢ $50 2h
Will Lorenzo Musetti be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 100¢ $50 8h
Will Panama go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? BUY No 100¢ $0 13h
Will Panama go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? BUY No 100¢ $50 13h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 100¢ $50 16h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals BUY No 100¢ $50 19h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 100¢ $50 19h
Portugal to win the second half? BUY No 100¢ $50 19h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 100¢ $50 19h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 100¢ $50 20h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $50 22h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $50 22h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $50 22h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 100¢ $50 38h
Spread: Norway (-3.5) BUY Iraq 100¢ $50 39h
Nikkei 225 (NIK) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Up 100¢ $50 2d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? BUY Yes 100¢ $50 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY No 100¢ $50 2d
Royan: Ognjen Milic vs Thomas Faurel BUY Thomas Faurel 100¢ $50 2d
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 9-15? BUY Yes 100¢ $50 3d
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Over 100¢ $50 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 100¢ $50 3d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 100¢ $50 3d
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 100¢ $50 3d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 100¢ $50 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 100¢ $50 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 100¢ $50 3d
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? BUY Yes 100¢ $50 4d
Will OG Anunoby win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? BUY No 100¢ $50 4d
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? BUY No 100¢ $50 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2227 history records