Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T14:10:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1D 0x1de6…e1f4 crypto 61 markets active 0h ago coverage 32d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$78 (-11%) realized −$78 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -33% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip
Net edge-42%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate44%27W / 34L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day3.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$15
14 days+$15
30 days+$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% −$77
sports 4% −$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-39.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -9.2% -17.9% 62% 31% -3.8%
≤30d 16 -9.2% -17.9% 62% 31% -3.8%
≤90d 61 -32.7% -39.1% 44% 30% -24.9%
all 61 -32.7% -39.1% 44% 30% -24.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -39.1% 30% -24.9%
10% -44.9% 25% -32.1%
15% -50.3% 13% -38.6%
20% -55.1% 5% -44.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -33% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -46% → late -20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$5 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.4 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

32d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$78
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses27 / 34
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)61 / 61
History coverage32d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day3.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 61 Trades
no open positions (25 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$4 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 13 $40 +$4 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 13 $50 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 13 $31 +$13 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 13 $36 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 13 $32 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 13 $6 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 13 $35 −$4 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET May 15 $19 −$18 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET May 15 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET May 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET May 15 $6 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET May 15 $66 +$6 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET May 15 $5 +$2 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET May 15 $10 +$8 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET May 15 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET May 15 $1 +$1 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET May 15 $11 −$2 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET May 15 $5 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET May 15 $62 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET May 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET May 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET May 15 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET May 15 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET May 15 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET May 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET May 15 $31 +$8 +25%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner May 15 $30 −$30 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET May 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET May 15 $3 −$1 -18%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET May 15 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET May 15 $8 −$3 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET May 15 $5 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET May 15 $3 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET May 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET May 15 $8 +$3 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET May 15 $4 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET May 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET May 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET May 14 $5 −$4 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET May 14 $5 −$2 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET May 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $10 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $10 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $2 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $2 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET SELL Down 92¢ $44 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $40 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $40 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $31 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $30 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $36 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $30 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET SELL Down 67¢ $7 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $30 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET SELL Up 84¢ $7 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $19 30d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $31 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 145 history records