Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T11:17:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
1D 0x1de8…0e79 weather 502 markets active 2h ago coverage 91d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$360 (+3%) realized +$358 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR66%break-even
Win rate80%399W / 101L
Drawdown50%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day16.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$69now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$61
7 days+$168
14 days+$195
30 days+$180
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$330
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +66%
net ROI/market (all)-7.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 +17.3% +6.1% 97% 77% +5.0%
≤30d 108 +6.0% -4.1% 90% 59% -5.2%
≤90d 486 +2.3% -7.4% 80% 66% -6.7%
all 500 +2.4% -7.3% 80% 66% -6.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.3% 66% -6.7%
10% -16.2% 36% -15.6%
15% -24.3% 7% -23.7%
20% -31.7% 1% -31.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$13 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.25 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

91d coverage
Net worth$69
Realized+$358
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses399 / 101
Open positions2
Markets (closed)500 / 502
History coverage91d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day16.0
Drawdown50%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 500 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 21? No 92¢ 97¢ $40 $43 +$2 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 22? No 84¢ 84¢ $26 $26 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 21? Jun 21 $50 +$17 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 21? Jun 21 $25 +$6 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 21? Jun 21 $40 +$3 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C or higher on June 21? Jun 21 $40 +$3 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 21? Jun 21 $26 +$5 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 21? Jun 20 $40 +$3 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 20? Jun 20 $50 +$9 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 20? Jun 20 $26 +$9 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 20? Jun 20 $6 +$2 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 20? Jun 19 $26 +$4 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 19? Jun 19 $40 +$11 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 19? Jun 19 $14 +$5 +38%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 19? Jun 19 $26 +$7 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 19? Jun 19 $26 +$5 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 18? Jun 18 $50 +$12 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 18? Jun 18 $40 +$6 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 18? Jun 17 $50 +$9 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 18? Jun 17 $40 −$40 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 17? Jun 17 $50 +$14 +29%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $26 +$5 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $50 +$10 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on June 16? Jun 16 $40 +$4 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 +$2 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 16? Jun 16 $51 +$11 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $27 +$5 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on June 15? Jun 15 $40 +$3 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 15? Jun 15 $50 +$20 +39%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 15? Jun 15 $40 +$9 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 14? Jun 14 $26 +$6 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 14? Jun 14 $26 +$2 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 14? Jun 14 $50 +$9 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 14? Jun 14 $26 +$8 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on June 13? Jun 13 $50 +$11 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 13? Jun 13 $40 +$3 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $26 −$26 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 14? Jun 13 $22 −$22 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $41 +$8 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $40 +$3 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $26 +$4 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 11? Jun 11 $50 +$9 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 11? Jun 11 $26 +$2 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 11? Jun 11 $26 +$2 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 10? Jun 10 $50 +$12 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 10? Jun 10 $50 +$19 +37%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 10? Jun 10 $50 +$9 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 9? Jun 08 $8 +$1 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 9? Jun 08 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 9? Jun 08 $23 +$2 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 9? Jun 08 $26 +$2 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 8? Jun 08 $50 +$21 +41%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 21? SELL No 99¢ $67 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 22? BUY No 84¢ $26 2h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 21? BUY No 74¢ $36 3h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 21? SELL No 99¢ $0 3h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 21? SELL No 99¢ $31 3h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 21? SELL No 99¢ $43 6h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C or higher on June 21? SELL No 99¢ $9 6h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C or higher on June 21? SELL No 99¢ $7 6h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C or higher on June 21? SELL No 99¢ $26 6h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 21? SELL No 99¢ $30 9h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 21? BUY No 84¢ $26 11h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 21? BUY No 84¢ $0 11h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 21? BUY No 80¢ $25 17h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 21? SELL No 99¢ $43 25h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 21? BUY No 92¢ $29 26h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 21? BUY No 92¢ $11 27h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C or higher on June 21? BUY No 92¢ $40 28h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 20? SELL No 99¢ $59 28h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 20? SELL No 99¢ $14 29h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 20? SELL No 99¢ $21 29h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 20? SELL No 99¢ $8 30h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 21? BUY No 74¢ $4 35h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 21? BUY No 74¢ $10 35h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 20? BUY No 73¢ $26 36h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 20? SELL No 99¢ $31 36h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 20? BUY No 74¢ $6 40h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 21? BUY No 91¢ $40 45h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 21? BUY No 91¢ $29 47h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 19? SELL No 99¢ $46 2d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 19? SELL No 99¢ $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $68.60 · official $68.60 (match) · 1490 history records