Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T12:28:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1D 0x1de9…831d sports 308 markets active 2h ago coverage 445d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$28,016 (+2%) realized +$21,576 · open +$6,440
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate85%250W / 45L
Whale WR95%big bets
Drawdown23%max
Avg bet$4,062per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$90est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$182,854now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$10
7 days−$5
14 days+$213
30 days+$252
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 30% +$2,818
other 21% +$14,071
politics 20% +$7,012
sports 16% +$1,398
crypto 13% +$2,496
tech 0% −$5
culture 0% −$2
weather 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-14.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +10.9% +0.3% 93% 29% -10.1%
≤30d 57 +5.9% -4.2% 89% 25% -8.9%
≤90d 195 -3.4% -12.6% 84% 16% -10.0%
all 295 -5.0% -14.0% 85% 15% -7.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.0% 15% -7.7%
10% ← realistic here -22.3% 5% -16.6%
15% -29.8% 2% -24.6%
20% -36.7% 1% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
82% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 95% (≥$1,487) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -7% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$115 vs −$166 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×3.86 per $1 lost it wins $3.86
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

445d coverage
Net worth$182,854
Realized+$21,576
Unrealized+$6,440
Win rate (resolved)85%
Wins / losses250 / 45
Whale WR (big bets)95%
Est. fees paid−$90
Open positions13
Markets (closed)295 / 308
History coverage445d
Avg bet$4,062
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown23%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 295 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? No 92¢ 96¢ $40,000 $41,705 +$1,705 (+4%)
Will any country leave NATO by June 30, 2026? No 97¢ 100¢ $29,686 $30,455 +$769 (+3%)
Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026? No 95¢ 100¢ $20,256 $21,216 +$960 (+5%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $20,000 $19,990 −$10 (-0%)
Will any country leave NATO by December 31, 2026? No 90¢ 95¢ $15,520 $16,500 +$980 (+6%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 87¢ 90¢ $15,000 $15,603 +$603 (+4%)
Will Russia invade another country in 2026? No 89¢ 90¢ $14,070 $14,341 +$271 (+2%)
NATO article 5 before 2027? No 86¢ 94¢ $11,685 $12,730 +$1,045 (+9%)
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? No 91¢ 92¢ $9,010 $9,097 +$87 (+1%)
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections? Yes 91¢ 94¢ $887 $914 +$27 (+3%)
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027? No 80¢ 81¢ $100 $102 +$2 (+2%)
Ukraine joins NATO before 2027? No 95¢ 96¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will United Russia (ER) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 96¢ 96¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 24 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $100 +$5 +5%
Will Germany advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 17 $100 +$3 +3%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 +$2 +20%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $36 +$64 +180%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $100 −$100 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $36 +$4 +12%
Will Kai Havertz score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $5 $0 +3%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 14 $10 $0 +1%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 6.5 Jun 13 $100 +$3 +3%
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. LG Twins Jun 13 $13 +$1 +7%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $10 $0 +3%
Will SpaceX IPO on June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $10 $0 +2%
Bratislava: Maxim Mrva vs Chun-Hsin Tseng Jun 11 $100 +$11 +11%
HSBC Championships: Laura Siegemund vs Amanda Anisimova Jun 10 $100 +$11 +11%
Libema Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Botic van de Zandschulp Jun 10 $5 +$1 +23%
Will Elon Musk be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's I Jun 10 $6 $0 +0%
China PR vs. Thailand: Both Teams to Score Jun 09 $98 +$2 +2%
France vs. Northern Ireland: O/U 5.5 Jun 08 $97 +$3 +3%
France vs. Northern Ireland: O/U 0.5 Jun 08 $100 +$2 +2%
Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A Jun 08 $2,003 +$54 +3%
T20 Blast, League 2, Women: Middlesex vs Derbyshire Falcons Jun 08 $6 $0 +6%
Kosovo vs. Andorra: O/U 5.5 Jun 07 $99 +$1 +1%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $100 +$2 +2%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Antonia Ruzic vs Aoi Ito Jun 07 $10 +$2 +17%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Jodie Burrage vs Anna Blinkova Jun 07 $5 +$1 +11%
Portugal vs. Chile: O/U 4.5 Jun 06 $100 +$3 +3%
Will there be more than 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher world Jun 06 $10 $0 +3%
Belgium vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 Jun 06 $100 +$1 +1%
Kawasaki Frontale vs. Sanfrecce Hiroshima: O/U 5.5 Jun 06 $100 +$2 +2%
Urawa Red Diamonds vs. Fagiano Okayama: O/U 4.5 Jun 06 $99 +$1 +1%
Will Donald Trump attend NATO Summit? Jun 05 $532 +$127 +24%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev Jun 05 $100 +$3 +3%
Trump approval Up or Down this week? Jun 05 $5 +$2 +35%
Sweden vs. Greece: O/U 5.5 Jun 04 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the Democratic Party of Korea (DP) win the 2026 South Korean loca Jun 04 $9,065 +$154 +2%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30? Jun 03 $6 $0 +4%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Jun 02 $100 +$1 +1%
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Naomi Osaka Jun 01 $5 +$1 +28%
Will Claude go down 12+ times in May? Jun 01 $6 $0 +4%
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele Jun 01 $15 $0 -2%
Germany vs. Finland: O/U 1.5 Jun 01 $5 +$1 +10%
Switzerland vs. Jordan: O/U 4.5 Jun 01 $3 +$1 +48%
The Polymarket Open: Big John vs. Cheddy May 31 $1 $0 +3%
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026? May 31 $20,118 −$94 -0%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $10 +$1 +11%
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic May 29 $11 −$11 -100%
Arne Slot out as Liverpool Head Coach by May 31, 2026? May 29 $200 −$21 -10%
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Elsa Jacquemot May 28 $14 $0 +1%
Will Cassie Howard die in Euphoria: Season 3? May 28 $10 $0 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United Russia (ER) win the most seats in the next Russian parliam BUY Yes 96¢ $100 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 95¢ $100 24h
Will Germany advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL Yes 99¢ $103 24h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 82¢ $12 39h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 35¢ $36 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 98¢ $100 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 97¢ $28 3d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL No 85¢ $10 4d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 99¢ $100 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 85¢ $25 4d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 97¢ $100 4d
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. LG Twins BUY LG Twins 93¢ $13 5d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 97¢ $10 5d
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027? BUY No 80¢ $101 5d
Will any country leave NATO by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $2 6d
Will any country leave NATO by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $2 6d
Will any country leave NATO by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $1 6d
Will any country leave NATO by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $1 6d
Will any country leave NATO by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $1 6d
Will any country leave NATO by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $2 6d
Will any country leave NATO by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $1 6d
Will any country leave NATO by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $2 6d
Will any country leave NATO by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $2 6d
Will any country leave NATO by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $2 6d
Will any country leave NATO by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $2 6d
Will any country leave NATO by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $2 6d
Will any country leave NATO by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $2 6d
Will any country leave NATO by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $2 6d
Will any country leave NATO by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $2 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $182,853.85 · official $182,853.86 (match) · 1652 history records