Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T12:34:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
1D 0x1dea…e914 other 44 markets active 0h ago coverage 64d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$388 (+16%) realized +$413 · open −$25
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate67%22W / 11L
Drawdown30%max
Avg bet$55per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit25%portable
Net worth$543now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$130
7 days+$322
14 days+$287
30 days+$323
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 74% +$351
sports 19% −$30
crypto 7% +$49
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-5.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -1.0% -10.4% 66% 52% +7.5%
≤30d 31 -1.9% -11.2% 65% 52% +6.7%
≤90d 33 +4.9% -5.1% 67% 55% +9.7%
all 33 +4.9% -5.1% 67% 55% +9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.1% 55% +9.7%
10% -14.2% 48% -0.8%
15% -22.5% 39% -10.4%
20% -30.1% 30% -19.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +21% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late +16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$23 · ×1.27 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.54 per $1 lost it wins $2.54
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

64d coverage
Net worth$543
Realized+$413
Unrealized−$25
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses22 / 11
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions11
Markets (closed)33 / 44
History coverage64d
Avg bet$55
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown30%
Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Yes 84¢ 86¢ $150 $153 +$3 (+2%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $98 $106 +$8 (+8%)
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Yes 83¢ 82¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ $110 $72 −$38 (-34%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Portugal leading at halftime? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 20¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+22%)
Will France reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 43¢ 52¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+20%)
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? Yes 64¢ 66¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will Spain reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 44¢ 44¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 2 Algeria? Jun 23 $20 +$6 +29%
Jordan leading at halftime? Jun 23 $100 +$4 +4%
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 2 Senegal? Jun 23 $100 +$15 +15%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $51 +$65 +129%
France leading at halftime? Jun 23 $23 +$7 +32%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $50 +$14 +28%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $6 $0 +6%
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 22 $20 +$20 +97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $152 +$75 +49%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $61 −$61 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $10 +$1 +12%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 22 $10 +$4 +36%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $252 +$110 +44%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $200 +$10 +5%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $8 +$8 +93%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $59 +$41 +70%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $253 −$109 -43%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $50 +$3 +6%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $20 +$15 +73%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $5 +$3 +62%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Qatar? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $10 −$5 -47%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $203 +$142 +70%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $35 −$35 -100%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $51 +$36 +70%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-03? May 04 $31 +$41 +134%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-04-27? Apr 28 $37 +$31 +86%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal leading at halftime? BUY Yes 68¢ $20 0m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $50 1m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $40 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $101 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $20 2h
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 2 Algeria? BUY Yes 77¢ $20 7h
Jordan leading at halftime? BUY Yes 96¢ $100 8h
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 2 Senegal? BUY Yes 87¢ $100 10h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 77¢ $10 12h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 77¢ $20 12h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 78¢ $20 12h
France leading at halftime? BUY Yes 75¢ $23 17h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 94¢ $6 17h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 82¢ $80 29h
Argentina leading at halftime? BUY Yes 50¢ $20 29h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 31h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $51 34h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $51 34h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $51 34h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 47¢ $10 34h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 36h
Spain leading at halftime? BUY Yes 73¢ $10 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $10 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $10 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $252 2d
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 95¢ $200 2d
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $8 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 38¢ $143 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $59 3d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 94¢ $50 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $542.99 · official $543.00 (match) · 109 history records