Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T08:31:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
1D 0x1dec…c1b9 other 5 markets active 2h ago coverage 91d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$8 (-6%) realized −$1 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%1W / 2L
Drawdown28%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$97now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 91d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 78% −$7
other 16% +$21
sports 3% −$3
world 3% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +51.7% +37.3% 50% 50% +104.4%
≤30d 2 +51.7% +37.3% 50% 50% +104.4%
≤90d 2 +51.7% +37.3% 50% 50% +104.4%
all 3 +1.1% -8.5% 33% 33% +53.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.5% 33% +53.9%
10% -17.2% 33% +39.2%
15% -25.2% 33% +25.7%
20% -32.6% 33% +13.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +126% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +70% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$4 · ×5.19 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.59 per $1 lost it wins $2.59
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

91d coverage
Net worth$97
Realized−$1
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses1 / 2
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)3 / 5
History coverage91d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown28%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $104 $97 −$7 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $4 −$3 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1 Jun 20 $10 +$21 +203%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Mar 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $97.38 · official $97.38 (match) · 9 history records