Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T14:25:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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1D 0x1dec…c9c7 crypto 774 markets active 2d ago coverage 87d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 86d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$240 (-4%) realized −$264 · open +$24
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate59%459W / 313L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day29.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$21
14 days−$57
30 days−$57
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$228
other 1% +$18
world 0% −$8
sports 0% +$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-19.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 -28.3% -35.2% 38% 24% -27.1%
≤30d 473 -5.8% -14.8% 74% 22% -11.4%
≤90d 772 -10.7% -19.2% 59% 23% -13.3%
all 772 -10.7% -19.2% 59% 23% -13.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.2% 23% -13.3%
10% ← realistic here -26.9% 13% -21.6%
15% -34.0% 7% -29.2%
20% -40.4% 5% -36.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
59% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

87d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized−$264
Unrealized+$24
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses459 / 313
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)772 / 774
History coverage87d ⚠
Avg bet$7
Trades / day29.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 772 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 2¢ 14¢ $4 $26 +$22 (+506%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+41%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 46 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 -5%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -53%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -53%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $1 $0 -37%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $1 $0 -37%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -53%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $1 $0 -37%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $1 $0 -37%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -53%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -53%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $1 $0 -44%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $1 $0 -29%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $1 $0 -6%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $1 $0 -29%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $1 $0 -29%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $1 $0 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 10 $2 +$1 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 09 $19 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 09 $37 −$2 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 09 $25 −$5 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 09 $17 −$2 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 09 $8 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 09 $2 −$1 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 09 $12 −$2 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 09 $23 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 09 $52 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 09 $34 −$8 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 08 $21 −$1 -5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $4 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $0 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $4 2d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 5d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 5d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 5d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 5d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 5d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 5d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 5d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 5d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 5d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 5d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 5d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 5d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 5d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 5d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $3 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.90 · official $32.92 (match) · 3500 history records