Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T12:27:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
1D 0x1dec…0f87 politics 75 markets active 1h ago coverage 55d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$117 (+4%) realized +$70 · open +$47
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate88%29W / 4L
Drawdown15%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$1,973now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$13
7 days+$38
14 days+$41
30 days+$62
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 44% +$26
world 27% +$78
other 16% −$2
finance 4% $0
crypto 4% +$2
tech 4% +$4
sports 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +5.5% -4.5% 88% 12% -1.9%
≤30d 30 +0.4% -9.2% 87% 13% -4.5%
≤90d 33 +0.5% -9.1% 88% 12% -4.6%
all 33 +0.5% -9.1% 88% 12% -4.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 12% -4.6%
10% -17.8% 3% -13.7%
15% -25.7% 0% -22.0%
20% -33.0% 0% -29.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 55% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$6 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×4.5 per $1 lost it wins $4.5
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

55d coverage
Net worth$1,973
Realized+$70
Unrealized+$47
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses29 / 4
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions43
Markets (closed)33 / 75
History coverage55d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown15%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 43 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? No 85¢ 89¢ $100 $105 +$5 (+5%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 83¢ 82¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Mohammed bin Salman sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? No 88¢ 94¢ $92 $98 +$6 (+7%)
US announces Cuba oil sanction relief by June 30? No 93¢ 90¢ $99 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Will the Democratic Party win the LA-02 House seat? Yes 89¢ 93¢ $92 $97 +$4 (+4%)
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30? No 93¢ 93¢ $93 $93 +$0 (+0%)
Will the Republican Party win the NC-03 House seat? Yes 86¢ 86¢ $92 $92 −$1 (-1%)
Will the Republican Party win the TN-01 House seat? Yes 93¢ 94¢ $79 $80 +$1 (+1%)
Will the Republican Party win the AL-01 House seat? Yes 93¢ 92¢ $80 $80 −$0 (-1%)
Will the Democratic Party win the IL-05 House seat? Yes 94¢ 94¢ $80 $80 −$0 (-1%)
Will the Republican Party win the GA-09 House seat? Yes 92¢ 92¢ $79 $79 +$0 (+1%)
Will the Democratic Party win the TX-19 House seat? No 94¢ 94¢ $79 $79 +$0 (+1%)
Will the Republican Party win the KY-01 House seat? Yes 94¢ 94¢ $78 $78 −$0 (-1%)
Will the Democratic Party win the TX-11 House seat? No 94¢ 94¢ $63 $64 +$0 (+1%)
Xi Jinping out before 2027? No 93¢ 93¢ $63 $63 +$0 (+1%)
Will the Democratic Party win the KY-05 House seat? No 95¢ 94¢ $63 $63 −$0 (-1%)
Will the Democratic Party win the KY-04 House seat? No 90¢ 90¢ $63 $63 −$0 (-1%)
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by December 31, 2026? No 84¢ 89¢ $46 $49 +$3 (+6%)
Obama federally charged before 2027? No 94¢ 95¢ $47 $48 +$1 (+1%)
Will the Democrats win the Wyoming Senate race in 2026? No 94¢ 95¢ $47 $47 +$0 (+1%)
Will Trump's approval rating hit 25% in 2026? No 92¢ 93¢ $47 $47 +$1 (+1%)
Will George Clooney announce a Presidential run before 2027? No 90¢ 94¢ $37 $38 +$1 (+4%)
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? No 12¢ 69¢ $6 $34 +$28 (+475%)
Iran coup attempt by June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? No 97¢ 100¢ $29 $30 +$1 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 18 $0 $0 —%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by June 30? Jun 18 $94 +$4 +4%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 17 $92 +$4 +4%
Will Hunter Biden announce a Presidential run before 2027? Jun 16 $38 +$1 +3%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 16 $79 +$4 +5%
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? Jun 15 $101 +$25 +24%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $29 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $52,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $20 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $29 +$1 +2%
Will Biagio Simonetti win the 2026 Ottaviano mayoral election? Jun 09 $30 +$1 +3%
Will Astralis reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 08 $30 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $7 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 9? Jun 08 $30 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 06 $30 $0 +1%
Will Wes Moore announce a Presidential run before 2027? Jun 05 $37 +$1 +2%
Will Matteo Berrettini win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 04 $26 +$1 +3%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 02 $100 −$9 -9%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 3, 2026? Jun 01 $15 $0 +1%
Will the People Power Party (PPP) win the 2026 South Korean local elec May 31 $25 $0 +1%
Will Declan Rice win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? May 30 $20 +$1 +6%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 30 $15 $0 +2%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? May 30 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? May 30 $100 +$19 +19%
Will Ashley Hinson be the Republican nominee for Senate in Iowa? May 30 $15 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 29 $25 $0 -1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? May 29 $25 $0 +1%
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden before 2027? May 28 $16 +$2 +11%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? May 27 $71 +$14 +20%
Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027? May 22 $8 −$8 -97%
Will the Buffalo Sabres win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? May 19 $10 $0 +2%
Will the Anaheim Ducks win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? May 18 $5 $0 +2%
Will Macklin Celebrini win the 2025–2026 NHL Hart Memorial Trophy? May 11 $4 $0 +2%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? May 07 $5 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 83¢ $100 1h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $97 1h
US announces Cuba oil sanction relief by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $100 19h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? SELL No 96¢ $96 27h
Will Hunter Biden announce a Presidential run before 2027? SELL No 95¢ $39 37h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $38 37h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $56 37h
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY No 12¢ $6 43h
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30? BUY No 93¢ $94 43h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? SELL No 96¢ $84 43h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY No 93¢ $92 3d
Will Mohammed bin Salman sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY No 88¢ $92 3d
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? SELL No 81¢ $126 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 13? BUY Yes 98¢ $29 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $52,000 on June 13? BUY Yes 98¢ $20 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 10? BUY Yes 98¢ $29 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 8? SELL No 98¢ $7 9d
Will Ralph Norman win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican prim BUY No 97¢ $18 10d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 9? SELL No 99¢ $30 10d
Iran coup attempt by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $30 10d
Will Astralis reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 98¢ $30 10d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 9? BUY No 98¢ $30 11d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 8? BUY No 98¢ $7 11d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $30 11d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $30 12d
Will Biagio Simonetti win the 2026 Ottaviano mayoral election? BUY No 97¢ $30 12d
Will Wes Moore announce a Presidential run before 2027? SELL No 93¢ $38 12d
Will the Democratic Party win the LA-02 House seat? BUY Yes 89¢ $93 13d
Will the Republican Party win the NC-03 House seat? BUY Yes 86¢ $93 13d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $29 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,972.60 · official $1,971.95 (match) · 156 history records