Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T13:08:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1D 0x1df4…0bd9 sports 27 markets active 2h ago coverage 82d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$2,006 (-24%) realized −$1,997 · open −$9
Gross ROI / mkt -39% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -45% what you keep after slip
Net edge-45%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate31%8W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$314per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$96est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$369now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$95
7 days+$95
14 days+$95
30 days+$95
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 72% +$279
crypto 25% −$2,095
other 3% −$257
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-45.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -3.4% -12.6% 50% 50% +20.6%
≤30d 2 -3.4% -12.6% 50% 50% +20.6%
≤90d 26 -39.2% -45.0% 31% 31% -32.6%
all 26 -39.2% -45.0% 31% 31% -32.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -45.0% 31% -32.6%
10% -50.2% 31% -39.0%
15% -55.0% 31% -44.9%
20% -59.4% 31% -50.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 53% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -26% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -39% · $-wt -26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -70% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$368 vs −$278 · ×1.32 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

82d coverage
Net worth$369
Realized−$1,997
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses8 / 18
Est. fees paid−$96
Open positions1
Markets (closed)26 / 27
History coverage82d
Avg bet$314
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoffs Gentle Mates 64¢ 62¢ $378 $369 −$9 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $198 +$184 +93%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $91 −$89 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 16 $203 −$203 -100%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Playoffs May 16 $296 −$292 -99%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs Walczaki (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 1 Playoffs May 14 $96 −$94 -98%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Movistar KOI (BO3) - Esports World Cup EMEA Quali May 14 $295 +$294 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Apr 17 $100 −$95 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Apr 17 $400 −$400 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Apr 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Apr 17 $600 −$600 -100%
Open Capfinances Rouen Metropole: Marta Kostyuk vs Ann Li Apr 17 $100 −$98 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Apr 08 $300 −$300 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-04? Apr 08 $257 −$257 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 1 Play Apr 04 $202 +$250 +123%
Counter-Strike: Atreides vs QUAZAR (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Europ Apr 04 $192 +$216 +113%
Counter-Strike: ECSTATIC vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #19 Apr 03 $200 +$191 +96%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 1 Play Apr 02 $1,000 +$1,089 +109%
Counter-Strike: BESTIA vs 3DMAX (BO3) - Parken Challenger Championship Apr 02 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 1 Apr 02 $500 −$500 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Apr 01 $269 −$269 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Apr 01 $331 −$331 -100%
Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs AaB Esport (BO3) - Parken Challenger Cham Apr 01 $76 −$76 -100%
Counter-Strike: HAVU vs Liquid (BO3) - DraculaN Playoffs Apr 01 $151 −$151 -100%
Grand Prix Hassan II: Timofey Skatov vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli Mar 31 $150 −$150 -100%
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs AaB Esport (BO1) - Parken Challenger Champion Mar 31 $700 +$476 +68%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs Gaimin Gladiators (BO3) - FERJEE In House Play Mar 31 $300 +$240 +80%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P BUY Gentle Mates 64¢ $382 1h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 51¢ $198 13h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $91 13h
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Playoffs BUY Legacy 56¢ $296 34d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs BUY FURIA 49¢ $203 36d
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs Walczaki (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 1 Playoffs BUY HOTU 46¢ $96 36d
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Movistar KOI (BO3) - Esports World Cup EMEA Quali SELL Karmine Corp 100¢ $589 36d
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Movistar KOI (BO3) - Esports World Cup EMEA Quali BUY Karmine Corp 50¢ $295 36d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $100 63d
Open Capfinances Rouen Metropole: Marta Kostyuk vs Ann Li BUY Ann Li 19¢ $100 63d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $159 72d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $441 72d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down $100 72d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $300 72d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down $100 72d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $200 72d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $100 72d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-04? BUY No 49¢ $257 76d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 1 Play SELL G2 99¢ $452 76d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 1 Play BUY G2 44¢ $93 76d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 1 Play BUY G2 44¢ $8 76d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 1 Play BUY G2 44¢ $8 76d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 1 Play BUY G2 44¢ $11 76d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 1 Play BUY G2 44¢ $83 76d
Counter-Strike: Atreides vs QUAZAR (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Europ BUY QUAZAR 47¢ $41 77d
Counter-Strike: Atreides vs QUAZAR (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Europ BUY QUAZAR 47¢ $4 77d
Counter-Strike: Atreides vs QUAZAR (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Europ BUY QUAZAR 47¢ $43 77d
Counter-Strike: Atreides vs QUAZAR (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Europ BUY QUAZAR 47¢ $2 77d
Counter-Strike: Atreides vs QUAZAR (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Europ BUY QUAZAR 47¢ $101 77d
Counter-Strike: ECSTATIC vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #19 BUY Team Nemesis 50¢ $200 77d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $369.25 · official $369.25 (match) · 87 history records