Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T10:36:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1D
0x1df4…fc58
other · 27 markets active 2h ago
3.5score
+$10,314 +12%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$13,124 · open −$2,839
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
Chart Positions 8 History 19 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$14,469
7 days+$14,362
14 days+$22,555
30 days+$22,555
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $8,700 $6,525 −$2,175 (-25%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $3,216 $3,213 −$3 (-0%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2,616 $2,943 +$327 (+12%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? Yes 28¢ 26¢ $3,036 $2,874 −$163 (-5%)
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2,645 $1,983 −$661 (-25%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Yes 53¢ 52¢ $1,972 $1,953 −$19 (-1%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $1,610 $1,479 −$131 (-8%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $870 $855 −$15 (-2%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Yes 28¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+251%)
Will Kim Tae-heum win the 2026 Chungcheongnam Province gubernatorial election? Yes 10¢ $350 $0 −$350 (-100%)
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Yes $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Will Park Heong-joon win the 2026 Busan Mayoral Election? Yes 18¢ $493 $0 −$493 (-100%)
Will Kim Boo-kyum win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? Yes 10¢ $320 $0 −$320 (-100%)
Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea? No $997 $0 −$997 (-100%)
Will Kim Moon-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Yes $1,189 $0 −$1,189 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 12 $2,947 −$243 -8%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $152 +$6 +4%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $659 −$77 -12%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $1,379 +$9 +1%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $247 −$34 -14%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $1,070 −$138 -13%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $7,674 +$14,945 +195%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 10 $1,227 −$104 -8%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $556 −$3 -0%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $42 −$40 -96%
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 04 $2,461 +$9,396 +382%
Will Kim Tae-heum win the 2026 Chungcheongnam Province gubernatorial e Jun 02 $362 −$350 -97%
Will Kim Boo-kyum win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? Jun 02 $331 −$320 -96%
Will Park Heong-joon win the 2026 Busan Mayoral Election? Jun 02 $508 −$493 -97%
Will Kim Moon-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? May 29 $1,189 −$1,189 -100%
Yoon reinstated as President before July? May 29 $10,011 −$10,011 -100%
Yoon out as president of South Korea before May? May 29 $23,100 −$23,100 -100%
Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea? May 21 $997 −$997 -100%
Yoon out as president of South Korea before April? Mar 27 $7,299 +$25,865 +354%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 52% −$848
other 33% +$12,733
world 11% −$1,323
sports 3% −$243
crypto 0% −$34
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $19 2h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2,695 2h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? SELL Yes 28¢ $2,577 2h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? SELL Yes 27¢ $126 2h
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1,457 3h
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $40 3h
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1,030 3h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $158 3h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $582 3h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $776 3h
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $16 3h
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $112 3h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $213 3h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $932 3h
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $113 4h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 12¢ $115 4h
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $124 4h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 13¢ $119 4h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 53¢ $1,999 4h
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 4h
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 4h
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 4h
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 4h
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 4h
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 4h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 4h
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 4h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 4h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 4h
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)+80.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +216.6% +186.4% 33% 11% -15.9%
≤30d 14 +137.9% +115.3% 29% 14% +48.3%
≤90d 14 +137.9% +115.3% 29% 14% +48.3%
all 19 +99.2% +80.3% 26% 16% -12.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +80.3% 16% -12.5%
10% ← realistic here +63.0% 16% -20.9%
15% +47.3% 16% -28.6%
20% +32.8% 16% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $21,825.99 · official $21,825.86 (match) · 333 history records