Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:29:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1D 0x1df5…6779 crypto 105 markets active 6d ago coverage 4d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (166 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$10 (-3%) realized −$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate44%46W / 59L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day165.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$28
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (166 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-28.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 -37.4% -43.4% 26% 17% -18.2%
≤30d 105 -21.2% -28.7% 44% 33% -17.8%
≤90d 105 -21.2% -28.7% 44% 33% -17.8%
all 105 -21.2% -28.7% 44% 33% -17.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover165.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -28.7% 33% -17.8%
10% ← realistic here -35.5% 23% -25.7%
15% -41.7% 18% -32.9%
20% -47.4% 14% -39.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -30% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses46 / 59
Open positions0
Markets (closed)105 / 105
History coverage4d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day165.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 105 Trades
no open positions (44 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 11 $4 −$1 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 11 $7 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$1 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 11 $4 −$2 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 11 $6 −$1 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 11 $9 −$2 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$1 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 11 $4 −$1 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 11 $9 +$2 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 11 $8 −$2 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 11 $4 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 11 $10 −$1 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 11 $8 −$1 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$1 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$1 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 11 $8 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 11 $7 +$3 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 11 $6 −$1 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 11 $9 −$2 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$1 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$2 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 11 $4 +$2 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 11 $4 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 11 $4 −$2 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$1 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$1 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$1 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$1 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 08 $5 −$3 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 08 $3 $0 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 08 $4 +$2 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 08 $4 −$1 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 08 $2 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 08 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 08 $3 $0 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET SELL Down 66¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET SELL Up 36¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET SELL Down 55¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET SELL Down 21¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET SELL Up 73¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET SELL Down 25¢ $0 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET SELL Up 51¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET SELL Down 51¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET SELL Up 33¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET SELL Up 44¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET SELL Up 24¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET SELL Down 70¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET SELL Up 29¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET SELL Up 92¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET SELL Down 10¢ $0 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 602 history records