Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T12:23:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1D 0x1df7…ca12 crypto 111 markets active 2h ago coverage 90d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$324 (-20%) realized −$327 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate46%48W / 57L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day3.8pace
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$188now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$4
14 days+$4
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 58% −$294
weather 33% −$49
other 9% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-22.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +13.4% +2.6% 100% 100% +2.6%
≤30d 1 +13.4% +2.6% 100% 100% +2.6%
≤90d 105 -14.8% -22.9% 46% 45% -31.2%
all 105 -14.8% -22.9% 46% 45% -31.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.9% 45% -31.2%
10% -30.3% 42% -37.8%
15% -37.0% 34% -43.8%
20% -43.2% 24% -49.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$12 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

90d coverage
Net worth$188
Realized−$327
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses48 / 57
Open positions6
Markets (closed)105 / 111
History coverage90d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day3.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 105 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 96¢ 96¢ $70 $70 −$0 (-0%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 94¢ 94¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 94¢ 94¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+0%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 20¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+13%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 89¢ 93¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+4%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 72°F or higher on April 18? Jun 21 $30 +$4 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on April 17? Apr 18 $10 +$2 +16%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ap Apr 18 $10 +$5 +47%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 56-57°F on April 17 Apr 18 $10 +$7 +66%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C or higher on April 17? Apr 18 $20 +$11 +56%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 54-55°F on April 16 Apr 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 74°F or higher on April Apr 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ap Apr 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on Apri Apr 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on April 17? Apr 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on April 16? Apr 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on April 16? Apr 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on Apri Apr 18 $10 +$4 +43%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on April 17? Apr 18 $10 +$5 +51%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on April 17? Apr 18 $10 +$5 +53%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on April 16? Apr 18 $10 +$3 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 56-57°F on April 16 Apr 18 $10 +$3 +34%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on Apri Apr 18 $10 +$4 +41%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on April 16? Apr 18 $10 +$10 +95%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on April 17? Apr 16 $5 −$1 -25%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on April 16 Apr 16 $10 +$3 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on April 16 Apr 16 $10 +$5 +51%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ap Apr 16 $10 +$5 +53%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on April 16? Apr 16 $10 +$10 +95%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 77°F or below on Apri Apr 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on April 17 Apr 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on Apri Apr 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on April 17? Apr 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on April 17? Apr 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 78-79°F on April 15? Apr 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on Apr Apr 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on Apri Apr 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ap Apr 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on April 15? Apr 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on April 15? Apr 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on Apri Apr 16 $5 +$1 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 76-77°F on April 15? Apr 16 $10 +$4 +37%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on April 15? Apr 16 $10 +$5 +49%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 46-47°F on April 15 Apr 16 $10 +$5 +52%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 74°F or higher on April 15? Apr 16 $10 +$7 +67%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on April 14? Apr 15 $5 +$3 +51%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on April 15? Apr 15 $10 +$3 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on April 15? Apr 15 $10 +$4 +37%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on April 15? Apr 15 $10 +$6 +63%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C or higher on April 15? Apr 15 $10 +$24 +235%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Apr 05 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 52-53°F on April 2? Apr 05 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Apr 05 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on April 2? Apr 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on April 2? Apr 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 94¢ $40 1h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $70 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 94¢ $50 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 89¢ $10 4d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 4d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 4d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 72°F or higher on April 18? BUY No 88¢ $20 64d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 72°F or higher on April 18? BUY No 88¢ $10 64d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on April 17? SELL No 54¢ $4 65d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on April 17? BUY No 64¢ $10 65d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 77°F or below on Apri BUY No 49¢ $10 65d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C or higher on April 17? BUY No 31¢ $10 65d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C or higher on April 17? BUY Yes 70¢ $10 65d
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on April 17? BUY No 60¢ $10 65d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on April 17? BUY No 71¢ $5 65d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on April 17? BUY No 86¢ $10 65d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on Apri BUY No 69¢ $10 65d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ap BUY No 67¢ $10 65d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on April 17? BUY No 65¢ $10 65d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on April 17 BUY No 69¢ $10 65d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on Apri BUY No 68¢ $10 65d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 56-57°F on April 17 BUY No 59¢ $10 65d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on April 17? BUY No 61¢ $10 65d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on April 17? BUY No 55¢ $10 65d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ap BUY No 80¢ $10 66d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on April 16? BUY No 74¢ $10 66d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on April 16 BUY No 75¢ $10 66d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on April 16? BUY No 74¢ $10 66d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on Apri BUY No 70¢ $10 66d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on April 16? BUY No 67¢ $10 66d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $187.52 · official $187.52 (match) · 473 history records