Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T12:24:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1E 0x1e00…19bf world 72 markets active 2h ago coverage 532d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$11 (-0%) realized −$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate38%26W / 42L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$37now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$1
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 34% +$1
other 23% $0
politics 21% $0
sports 13% −$12
economics 6% $0
crypto 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.5% -9.0% 43% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 24 -3.5% -12.7% 33% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 64 -1.4% -10.8% 36% 0% -9.5%
all 68 -2.7% -12.0% 38% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.0% 0% -9.9%
10% -20.4% 0% -18.5%
15% -28.1% 0% -26.4%
20% -35.1% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.34 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

532d coverage
Net worth$37
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses26 / 42
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions4
Markets (closed)68 / 72
History coverage532d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 68 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? No 96¢ 96¢ $37 $36 −$0 (-1%)
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 96¢ 95¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-1%)
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 8¢ 9¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+11%)
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-65%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 19 $18 +$1 +4%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 19 $17 $0 +1%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $70 −$1 -1%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $37 $0 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $2 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $10 $0 -1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $81 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $76 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 10 $36 +$1 +2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 09 $32 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 09 $37 +$1 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 08 $15 $0 +0%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 08 $4 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 07 $60 −$1 -1%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $58 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 03 $8 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 02 $11 $0 -4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 01 $39 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $2 $0 +9%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 30 $35 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 29 $35 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 28 $8 −$1 -11%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $13 +$1 +5%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 28 $36 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 18 $42 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 18 $35 $0 -0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 18 $42 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 15 $2 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 27 $40 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $68 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 26 $74 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $74 $0 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $33 $0 -1%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 25 $37 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 25 $67 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 25 $44 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $74 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 22 $43 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $37 $0 -0%
Will Richard Van De Water win The Bachelorette Season 22? Apr 20 $37 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 19 $2 $0 -2%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 18 $78 $0 +0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 17 $75 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 16 $101 $0 +0%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31? Apr 13 $6 +$1 +9%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $69 $0 +0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $38 $0 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $110 $0 +0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 09 $73 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Apr 08 $35 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $37 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 26¢ $16 18h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 26¢ $3 18h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 25¢ $18 20h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $5 22h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $13 22h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 92¢ $17 23h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $36 37h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $34 39h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $38 46h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $37 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $33 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $36 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 27¢ $10 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 27¢ $8 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $7 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $24 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $30 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 41¢ $27 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $27 7d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $40 7d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $40 7d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL Yes 65¢ $30 9d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL Yes 65¢ $7 9d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY Yes 64¢ $36 10d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 45¢ $26 10d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 45¢ $6 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.75 · official $36.31 (match) · 283 history records