Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T00:07:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1E 0x1e03…596f politics 44 markets active 0h ago coverage 102d
TRAPdo not copy
Total PnL −$5 (-1%) realized −$30 · open +$13
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate52%16W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$134now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$20
7 days+$18
14 days+$18
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 42% −$5
world 23% −$36
other 20% −$22
crypto 7% +$8
economics 5% +$25
culture 2% +$9
sports 2% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-17.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +34.2% +21.4% 71% 43% +5.8%
≤30d 10 +7.9% -2.4% 50% 30% -5.0%
≤90d 23 -5.5% -14.5% 52% 26% -6.6%
all 31 -9.2% -17.8% 52% 26% -14.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.8% 26% -14.8%
10% -25.7% 19% -22.9%
15% -32.9% 16% -30.4%
20% -39.5% 10% -37.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 50% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$7 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

102d coverage
Net worth$134
Realized−$30
Unrealized+$13
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses16 / 15
Open positions12
Markets (closed)31 / 44
History coverage102d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 14, 2026? Jun 14 $5 $0 +6%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $20 +$8 +42%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 10 $20 −$3 -15%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-28? Jun 10 $5 +$7 +140%
Will the Virginia constitutional amendment referendum pass by 3-6%? Jun 10 $20 +$1 +4%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026? Jun 10 $15 +$25 +164%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 25 $5 −$5 -94%
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House May 23 $10 −$1 -14%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 19 $10 −$5 -53%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? May 15 $20 +$10 +52%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 23 $20 $0 +2%
Will Javokhir Sindarov win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament? Apr 20 $10 +$1 +8%
Will Tisza win at least 130 seats? Apr 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? Apr 20 $5 −$5 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 07 $10 −$5 -50%
Will Trump say "Third term" in March? Apr 05 $40 +$3 +8%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in March? Apr 01 $20 +$6 +32%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March? Apr 01 $5 +$1 +12%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in March? Apr 01 $20 +$1 +5%
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by March 31, 2026? Mar 25 $11 −$1 -8%
Will Emmanuel Grégoire win the Paris mayor election? Mar 23 $10 $0 -3%
Russia strike impacts Kyiv municipality during week of March 2, 2026? Mar 17 $5 −$3 -64%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 14 $75 −$1 -1%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before 2027? Mar 14 $30 $0 +1%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? Mar 14 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? Mar 14 $5 $0 +4%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-11? Mar 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentar Mar 09 $10 +$1 +15%
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? Mar 09 $30 −$5 -17%
LoL: Galions Sharks vs French Flair (BO5) - LFL Invitational Playoffs Mar 06 $10 +$4 +39%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? SELL Yes 39¢ $1 11m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 20¢ $5 49m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 81¢ $1 49m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 84¢ $0 57m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 86¢ $0 58m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 84¢ $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 84¢ $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 84¢ $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 84¢ $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 84¢ $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 84¢ $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 84¢ $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 83¢ $1 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 83¢ $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 83¢ $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 83¢ $0 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 72¢ $5 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 76¢ $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 77¢ $1 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 77¢ $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 77¢ $5 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 74¢ $8 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 73¢ $0 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 73¢ $0 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 73¢ $1 2h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY Yes 98¢ $5 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 66¢ $1 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 65¢ $0 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 65¢ $0 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 65¢ $1 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $134.24 · official $134.25 (match) · 280 history records