Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T03:03:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1E 0x1e04…80ba weather 67 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (206 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$214 (-9%) realized −$119 · open −$95
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate73%43W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day205.9pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$277now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 58% −$89
crypto 42% −$233
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (206 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-23.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 59 -15.0% -23.1% 73% 19% -20.8%
≤30d 59 -15.0% -23.1% 73% 19% -20.8%
≤90d 59 -15.0% -23.1% 73% 19% -20.8%
all 59 -15.0% -23.1% 73% 19% -20.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover205.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -23.1% 19% -20.8%
10% ← realistic here -30.4% 5% -28.4%
15% -37.2% 3% -35.3%
20% -43.3% 2% -41.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
70% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$19 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.27 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$277
Realized−$119
Unrealized−$95
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses43 / 16
Open positions8
Markets (closed)59 / 67
History coverage2d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day205.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 59 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 29? Yes 51¢ 44¢ $260 $223 −$37 (-14%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 29? Yes 15¢ 6¢ $87 $35 −$53 (-60%)
Will the lowest temperature in London be 14°C on June 29? No 95¢ 90¢ $11 $10 −$1 (-6%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 30? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 29? Yes 6¢ 2¢ $2 $1 −$2 (-76%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C or below on June 29? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+12%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 29? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-87%)
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 28? No 81¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 28? Jun 29 $18 +$3 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on June 29? Jun 29 $5 +$1 +26%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 19°C on June 28? Jun 28 $37 +$2 +5%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 18°C on June 28? Jun 28 $33 +$4 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 35°C on June 28? Jun 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on June 28? Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on June 28? Jun 28 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 28? Jun 28 $22 −$13 -59%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 39°C on June 28? Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on June 28? Jun 28 $1 −$1 -92%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 28? Jun 28 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 28? Jun 28 $233 +$8 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 28? Jun 28 $59 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 28? Jun 28 $133 +$11 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on June 28? Jun 28 $11 +$10 +90%
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 28? Jun 28 $16 −$14 -91%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 38°C on June 28? Jun 28 $3 $0 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 37°C on June 28? Jun 28 $5 +$2 +48%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 28°C on June 28? Jun 28 $13 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 28? Jun 28 $112 +$4 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on June 28? Jun 28 $16 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 24°C on June 28? Jun 28 $24 +$2 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 29? Jun 28 $4 −$1 -39%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 21°C on June 27? Jun 27 $16 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 21°C on June 27? Jun 27 $23 $0 -0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 27 $13 $0 +0%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 27, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 27 $7 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 27 $65 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 27 $45 −$45 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 27 $14 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 27 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 27 $19 +$1 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 27 $5 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 27 $14 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 27 $9 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 27 $59 +$3 +5%
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 27 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 27 $60 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 27, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 27 $14 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 27 $100 $0 +0%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 27 $5 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 27, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 27 $28 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 27 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 27 $175 −$175 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 27 $45 +$4 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 27 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 27 $26 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 27 $47 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 27 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 27 $4 +$1 +13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 29? BUY Yes 49¢ $5 1m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 29? BUY Yes 50¢ $1 2m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 29? BUY Yes 50¢ $1 2m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 29? BUY Yes 49¢ $5 2m
Will the lowest temperature in London be 14°C on June 29? BUY No 95¢ $1 3m
Will the lowest temperature in London be 14°C on June 29? BUY No 96¢ $10 4m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 29? BUY Yes 49¢ $7 4m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 29? BUY Yes 44¢ $1 4m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 29? BUY Yes 43¢ $2 5m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 29? BUY Yes 42¢ $1 5m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 29? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 5m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 29? BUY Yes 39¢ $1 5m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 30? BUY Yes 30¢ $8 7m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 29? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 30m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 29? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 37m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 30? SELL Yes 27¢ $36 38m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 29? SELL Yes 24¢ $1 40m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 29? SELL Yes 25¢ $5 40m
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on June 29? SELL Yes 42¢ $6 48m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 29? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 29? BUY Yes 50¢ $19 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 30? BUY Yes 31¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 30? BUY Yes 31¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 30? BUY Yes 32¢ $42 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 29? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 29? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 29? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 29? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 29? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 29? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $276.83 · official $276.83 (match) · 455 history records