Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T12:28:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1E 0x1e04…b576 crypto 393 markets active 2h ago coverage 234d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$467 (+5%) realized +$467 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate95%373W / 20L
Drawdown60%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$11
7 days+$1
14 days+$23
30 days+$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 72% +$142
other 15% +$155
finance 8% −$11
sports 5% +$172
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-7.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 63 +0.4% -9.1% 98% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 154 -0.5% -10.0% 97% 0% -9.1%
≤90d 380 -3.1% -12.3% 95% 1% -17.2%
all 393 +1.8% -7.9% 95% 4% -4.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.9% 4% -4.9%
10% -16.7% 3% -14.0%
15% -24.8% 3% -22.3%
20% -32.1% 3% -29.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$38 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.61 per $1 lost it wins $1.61
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

234d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$467
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses373 / 20
Open positions0
Markets (closed)393 / 393
History coverage234d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown60%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 393 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6AM ET Jun 18 $37 +$1 +4%
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 18 $2 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 18 $6 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 18 $10 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 18 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 17 $16 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 17 $16 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $15 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $17 $0 +3%
BNB Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $50 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $50 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $29 +$1 +2%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.20 and $1.30 on June 17? Jun 17 $29 +$1 +2%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.10 and $1.20 on June 17? Jun 17 $29 +$1 +2%
Dogecoin Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 9AM ET Jun 17 $50 +$1 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9AM ET Jun 17 $49 +$3 +6%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 17 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 17 $49 +$1 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 17 $50 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11PM ET Jun 17 $50 +$3 +6%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 17 $3 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 12PM ET Jun 16 $50 +$3 +6%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +3%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $16 $0 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $15 +$1 +5%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 15 $16 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7AM ET Jun 14 $50 +$1 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7AM ET Jun 14 $50 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 14 $16 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 14 $16 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 14 $16 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 14 $16 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 14 $16 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 14 $15 +$1 +5%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 14, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +3%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 3AM ET Jun 14 $23 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 14 $9 +$1 +8%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 14 $7 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 13 $16 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 13 $16 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 13 $15 +$1 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $37 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $2 5h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $6 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $10 13h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $16 17h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $16 17h
BNB Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 99¢ $50 20h
Will the price of XRP be between $1.10 and $1.20 on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $29 20h
Dogecoin Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 98¢ $30 20h
Ethereum Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 99¢ $50 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 97¢ $17 20h
Will the price of XRP be between $1.20 and $1.30 on June 17? BUY Yes 98¢ $29 20h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $29 20h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $30 20h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 98¢ $15 20h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 9AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $50 22h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $49 22h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $50 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $49 32h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $50 32h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $3 39h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 12PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $50 43h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $10 2d
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $16 2d
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $15 2d
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $10 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1048 history records