Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:48:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1E 0x1e05…f00c politics 18 markets active 1h ago coverage 105d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$94per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 58% −$1
other 21% $0
sports 16% $0
economics 5% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 12 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
all 18 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$0 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

105d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 18
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)18 / 18
History coverage105d
Avg bet$94
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 18 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $175 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Falcons win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 06 $88 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 22 $88 $0 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 19 $88 $0 -0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 14 $88 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 11 $88 $0 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $89 $0 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 17 $89 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 16 $89 $0 +0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 09 $89 $0 +0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 03 $89 $0 +0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 25 $89 $0 +0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 18 $89 $0 +0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 15 $89 $0 +0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 13 $90 $0 -0%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Mar 11 $90 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 07 $90 $0 +0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 05 $90 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $87 1h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $87 12h
Will the Atlanta Falcons win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $87 11d
Will the Atlanta Falcons win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $88 11d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $88 21d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $88 21d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $88 26d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $88 26d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $88 29d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $88 30d
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $88 34d
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $88 35d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $88 37d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $88 38d
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $89 59d
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $89 60d
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $89 61d
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $89 61d
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $89 62d
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $89 63d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $89 69d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $89 70d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $89 75d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $89 75d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $89 84d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $89 85d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $89 91d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $89 92d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $89 93d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $89 94d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 55 history records