trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | +19.9% | +8.5% | 100% | 100% | +8.5% |
| ≤30d | 2 | +40.6% | +27.2% | 100% | 100% | +37.2% |
| ≤90d | 12 | -52.8% | -57.3% | 33% | 33% | -36.1% |
| all | 37 | -14.0% | -22.2% | 62% | 51% | -11.0% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -22.2% | 51% | -11.0% |
| 10% | -29.6% | 38% | -19.5% |
| 15% | -36.4% | 27% | -27.3% |
| 20% | -42.7% | 19% | -34.4% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? | No | 91¢ | 92¢ | $1,183 | $1,190 | +$6 (+1%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? | Jun 20 | $417 | +$83 | +20% |
| Spurs vs. Thunder | May 30 | $1,364 | +$836 | +61% |
| Thunder vs. Lakers | May 10 | $1,064 | +$336 | +32% |
| Lakers vs. Clippers | Apr 26 | $100 | −$100 | -100% |
| No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting? | Apr 26 | $375 | −$375 | -100% |
| Trail Blazers vs. Spurs | Apr 26 | $425 | −$425 | -100% |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem | Apr 26 | $137 | −$137 | -100% |
| Suns vs. Heat | Apr 26 | $612 | −$612 | -100% |
| Pistons vs. Raptors | Apr 26 | $915 | −$915 | -100% |
| No change in Fed interest rates after July 2025 meeting? | Apr 26 | $69 | −$69 | -100% |
| Pelicans vs. Jazz | Apr 26 | $630 | −$630 | -100% |
| Spurs vs. Heat | Apr 07 | $260 | +$140 | +54% |
| Thunder vs. Lakers | Feb 10 | $845 | +$455 | +54% |
| Grizzlies vs. Pelicans | Feb 01 | $550 | +$450 | +82% |
| Celtics vs. Jazz | Dec 31 | $360 | +$140 | +39% |
| Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC win on 2025-12-20? | Dec 29 | $199 | +$66 | +33% |
| Will KT Rolster win LoL Worlds 2025? | Nov 20 | $310 | +$189 | +61% |
| 100% tariff on China in effect by November 1? | Nov 03 | $266 | +$34 | +13% |
| Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? | Oct 21 | $318 | +$182 | +58% |
| Will Hamas release all Israeli hostages by October 13? | Oct 14 | $328 | +$72 | +22% |
| US government shutdown by October 1? | Oct 03 | $360 | +$140 | +39% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $120K in July? | Jul 14 | $603 | −$603 | -100% |
| No change in Fed interest rates after June 2025 meeting? | Jun 22 | $973 | +$27 | +3% |
| Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea? | Jun 10 | $395 | +$105 | +27% |
| Will Real Madrid win La Liga? | May 18 | $159 | −$159 | -100% |
| Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister? | May 15 | $375 | +$125 | +33% |
| Ethereum above $2,000 on April 4? | Apr 05 | $112 | −$112 | -100% |
| Yoon out as president of South Korea before April? | Apr 01 | $320 | +$180 | +56% |
| Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14? | Mar 15 | $172 | +$28 | +16% |
| Will Liverpool win the UEFA Champions League? | Mar 15 | $210 | −$210 | -100% |
| Will the AfD win less than 10% of the vote in the German election? | Mar 09 | $10 | −$8 | -75% |
| Bitcoin above $84,000 on March 7? | Mar 08 | $267 | +$33 | +12% |
| Will "Anora" win Best Picture at the 2025 Oscars? | Mar 03 | $168 | +$68 | +41% |
| Will Solana hit $350 by February 28 2025? | Mar 01 | $299 | +$1 | +0% |
| No change in Fed interest rates after January 2025 meeting? | Jan 31 | $971 | +$17 | +2% |
| Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? | Jan 21 | $21,876 | +$32 | +0% |
| Will Biden finish his term? | Jan 06 | $1,124 | $0 | +0% |
| Market | side | price | size | when |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? | BUY No | 91¢ | $1,186 | 1h |
| Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? | BUY No | 83¢ | $417 | 5d |
| Spurs vs. Thunder | BUY Thunder | 62¢ | $1,364 | 29d |
| Thunder vs. Lakers | BUY Thunder | 76¢ | $2 | 46d |
| Thunder vs. Lakers | BUY Thunder | 76¢ | $138 | 46d |
| Thunder vs. Lakers | BUY Thunder | 76¢ | $15 | 46d |
| Thunder vs. Lakers | BUY Thunder | 76¢ | $31 | 46d |
| Thunder vs. Lakers | BUY Thunder | 76¢ | $47 | 46d |
| Thunder vs. Lakers | BUY Thunder | 76¢ | $61 | 46d |
| Thunder vs. Lakers | BUY Thunder | 76¢ | $6 | 46d |
| Thunder vs. Lakers | BUY Thunder | 76¢ | $61 | 46d |
| Thunder vs. Lakers | BUY Thunder | 76¢ | $167 | 46d |
| Thunder vs. Lakers | BUY Thunder | 76¢ | $158 | 46d |
| Thunder vs. Lakers | BUY Thunder | 76¢ | $15 | 46d |
| Thunder vs. Lakers | BUY Thunder | 76¢ | $77 | 46d |
| Thunder vs. Lakers | BUY Thunder | 76¢ | $153 | 46d |
| Thunder vs. Lakers | BUY Thunder | 76¢ | $8 | 46d |
| Thunder vs. Lakers | BUY Thunder | 76¢ | $121 | 46d |
| Thunder vs. Lakers | BUY Thunder | 76¢ | $5 | 46d |
| Trail Blazers vs. Spurs | BUY Spurs | 85¢ | $425 | 64d |
| Spurs vs. Heat | BUY Spurs | 65¢ | $260 | 93d |
| Pistons vs. Raptors | BUY Pistons | 61¢ | $25 | 101d |
| Pistons vs. Raptors | BUY Pistons | 61¢ | $25 | 101d |
| Pistons vs. Raptors | BUY Pistons | 61¢ | $612 | 101d |
| Pistons vs. Raptors | BUY Pistons | 61¢ | $19 | 101d |
| Pistons vs. Raptors | BUY Pistons | 61¢ | $25 | 101d |
| Pistons vs. Raptors | BUY Pistons | 61¢ | $30 | 101d |
| Pistons vs. Raptors | BUY Pistons | 61¢ | $20 | 101d |
| Pistons vs. Raptors | BUY Pistons | 61¢ | $30 | 101d |
| Pistons vs. Raptors | BUY Pistons | 61¢ | $129 | 101d |