Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T23:48:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1E
0x1e08…e99b
other · 327 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$194 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$297 · open +$98
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1,729
Realized−$297
Unrealized+$98
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses204 / 67
Est. fees paid−$42
Open positions56
Markets (closed)271 / 327
History coverage368d
Avg bet$68
Trades / day3.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit35%
Chart Positions 56 History 271 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$12
7 days+$13
14 days+$297
30 days−$849
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Saudi Arabia be an advancing Group Stage third-place team at the 2026 World Cup? No 66¢ 65¢ $195 $192 −$3 (-2%)
Will Scotland be an advancing Group Stage third-place team at the 2026 World Cup? No 61¢ 80¢ $136 $176 +$40 (+30%)
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? Yes 67¢ 72¢ $100 $107 +$7 (+7%)
Will Belgium advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 94¢ 96¢ $84 $86 +$2 (+2%)
Will Christian Pulisic score 2+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 43¢ 44¢ $81 $85 +$3 (+4%)
World Cup Goal Contributions H2H: Valverde vs. Fernandes Bruno 77¢ 74¢ $84 $81 −$3 (-3%)
Will Sweden advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $81 $80 −$1 (-1%)
Will Florian Wirtz score 3+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 63¢ 66¢ $74 $77 +$3 (+4%)
Will Julian Alvarez score 3+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 46¢ 70¢ $39 $61 +$22 (+55%)
Will Ghana be an advancing Group Stage third-place team at the 2026 World Cup? No 70¢ 85¢ $42 $51 +$9 (+21%)
Will Vinicius Jr. score 3+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 57¢ 56¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-3%)
Will Lamine Yamal score 6+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 90¢ 86¢ $50 $47 −$2 (-5%)
Will Florian Wirtz score 2+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 44¢ 44¢ $44 $44 +$0 (+1%)
Will England advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 96¢ 96¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+0%)
Will Lamine Yamal score 3+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 45¢ 47¢ $37 $39 +$2 (+5%)
Will Luis Javier Suárez score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 69¢ 74¢ $36 $38 +$2 (+7%)
Will USA finish second in Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 27¢ 36¢ $28 $37 +$9 (+33%)
Will DR Congo be an advancing Group Stage third-place team at the 2026 World Cup? No 69¢ 80¢ $28 $32 +$4 (+14%)
Will Lionel Messi score 4+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 58¢ 85¢ $21 $31 +$10 (+45%)
Will Algeria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 67¢ 67¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+0%)
Will Emiliano Martínez record the most clean sheets at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 81¢ 80¢ $28 $28 −$0 (-1%)
Will Germany finish second in Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $27 $27 −$0 (-0%)
Will Switzerland finish second in Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? No 75¢ 76¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+1%)
Will there be 15+ missed penalties during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 87¢ 86¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-2%)
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score? No 95¢ 94¢ $23 $23 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jeremie Frimpong score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Will Ousmane Dembélé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Jun 12 $55 +$3 +6%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 12 $201 +$6 +3%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 12 $201 +$1 +0%
Will Spain advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $314 +$2 +1%
Will Cole Palmer score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $56 +$1 +1%
Will Phil Foden score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $5 $0 +1%
Will Robert Lewandowski score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $3 $0 +1%
Will Lewis Hall be included in England's official 2026 World Cup squad Jun 02 $21 +$2 +7%
Will Adam Wharton be included in England's official 2026 World Cup squ Jun 02 $30 +$1 +2%
Will Harry Kane record the most Player of the Match awards during the May 31 $58 +$16 +28%
Will Vinícius Júnior record the most assists in the 2025-26 UEFA Champ May 31 $240 +$137 +57%
Will Achraf Hakimi record the most assists in the 2025-26 UEFA Champio May 31 $140 +$2 +2%
Will Robert Andrich record the most red cards in 2025-26 UEFA Champion May 31 $31 +$33 +109%
Will Kim Min-Jae record the most red cards in 2025-26 UEFA Champions L May 31 $118 +$10 +9%
Will a team from France be the 2026 Champions League winner? May 31 $3 +$7 +233%
Will Michael Olise record the most assists in the 2025-26 UEFA Champio May 30 $165 +$69 +42%
Arne Slot out as Liverpool Head Coach by May 31, 2026? May 30 $8 +$7 +86%
Will Carlo Holse record the most assists in the 2025-26 UEFA Europa Co May 28 $67 +$8 +12%
Will Rayo Vallecano win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa Conference League? May 28 $29 +$17 +58%
Will Algeria win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 25 $5 $0 +4%
Will Liverpool qualify for the League Phase of the 2026-27 UEFA Champi May 24 $358 +$41 +12%
Will West Ham be relegated from the English Premier League after the 2 May 24 $55 +$46 +84%
Will Tottenham be relegated from the English Premier League after the May 24 $80 +$21 +26%
English Premier League: Bruno Fernandes breaks assists record? May 24 $746 −$695 -93%
UEFA Champions League: Unbeaten Champion May 24 $24 +$11 +45%
Will Phil Foden be included in England's official 2026 World Cup squad May 24 $37 $0 +1%
Will Bournemouth qualify for the League Phase of the 2026-27 UEFA Cham May 24 $116 −$5 -4%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion qualify for the League Phase of the 2026-2 May 24 $150 −$7 -5%
Will Kobbie Mainoo be included in England's official 2026 World Cup sq May 22 $24 +$1 +4%
Will Bukayo Saka be included in England's official 2026 World Cup squa May 22 $1 $0 +1%
Will Dan Burn be included in England's official 2026 World Cup squad l May 22 $5 $0 +2%
Will Freiburg win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? May 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Aston Villa win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? May 21 $110 −$110 -100%
Will Southampton achieve promotion from the EFL Championship to the En May 21 $13 +$7 +50%
Will SC Freiburg qualify for the League Phase of the 2026-27 UEFA Cham May 20 $99 $0 -0%
Will a team from England be the 2026 Europa League winner? May 20 $5 +$3 +61%
Will Middlesbrough achieve promotion from the EFL Championship to the May 20 $279 −$226 -81%
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-05-19? May 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Denmark be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? May 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? May 20 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Brentford qualify for the League Phase of the 2026-27 UEFA Champi May 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Chelsea win the 2025-2026 FA Cup? May 20 $58 −$58 -100%
Will Arsenal win a trophy this season? May 20 $284 −$10 -4%
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 20 $298 −$217 -73%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 20 $16 +$11 +67%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $10 +$19 +185%
Will United Kingdom come in last place at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $3 +$4 +116%
Will Manchester City win the 2025-2026 FA Cup? May 16 $30 +$20 +66%
Will Kylian Mbappe be the 2025/2026 top UCL goal scorer? May 13 $312 +$211 +68%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 66% −$219
sports 30% −$419
world 4% +$438
crypto 0% +$1
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Scotland be an advancing Group Stage third-place team at the 2026 BUY No 62¢ $63 1h
Will Saudi Arabia be an advancing Group Stage third-place team at the BUY No 65¢ $13 1h
Will Ghana be an advancing Group Stage third-place team at the 2026 Wo BUY No 71¢ $14 1h
Will Ghana be an advancing Group Stage third-place team at the 2026 Wo BUY No 70¢ $28 1h
Will DR Congo be an advancing Group Stage third-place team at the 2026 BUY No 70¢ $14 1h
Will DR Congo be an advancing Group Stage third-place team at the 2026 BUY No 69¢ $14 1h
Will Saudi Arabia be an advancing Group Stage third-place team at the BUY No 67¢ $37 1h
Will Saudi Arabia be an advancing Group Stage third-place team at the BUY No 66¢ $45 1h
Will Scotland be an advancing Group Stage third-place team at the 2026 BUY No 61¢ $51 1h
Will Saudi Arabia be an advancing Group Stage third-place team at the BUY No 66¢ $101 1h
Will Scotland be an advancing Group Stage third-place team at the 2026 BUY No 60¢ $24 1h
Will Austria finish second in Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group BUY Yes 37¢ $4 1h
Will there be 5+ missed penalties during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 15¢ $8 1h
Will there be 15+ missed penalties during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 87¢ $25 1h
Will Colombia finish second in Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Grou BUY No 52¢ $5 1h
Will Ivory Coast finish second in Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup G BUY No 66¢ $10 1h
Will Germany finish second in Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group BUY Yes 18¢ $28 1h
Will Panama finish second in Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group BUY Yes 10¢ $8 1h
Will Panama finish second in Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group BUY Yes 10¢ $5 1h
Will England finish second in Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group BUY Yes 19¢ $5 1h
Will USA finish second in Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Sta BUY Yes 27¢ $29 1h
Will Emiliano Martínez record the most clean sheets at the 2026 FIFA W BUY No 82¢ $3 1h
Will Emiliano Martínez record the most clean sheets at the 2026 FIFA W BUY No 81¢ $25 1h
Will Mexico finish second in Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group BUY Yes 27¢ $6 1h
Will Switzerland finish second in Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup G BUY No 75¢ $25 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina finish second in Group B in the 2026 FIFA BUY No 71¢ $10 1h
Will Christian Pulisic score 6+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $10 2h
Will Christian Pulisic score 2+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 45¢ $11 2h
Will Julian Alvarez score 3+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 47¢ $10 2h
Will Florian Wirtz score 3+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 66¢ $14 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +1.7% -8.0% 100% 0% -8.2%
≤30d 49 +7.7% -2.5% 71% 37% -27.4%
≤90d 167 +1.1% -8.5% 72% 35% -11.2%
all 271 +0.1% -9.4% 75% 30% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover3.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 30% -10.8%
10% -18.1% 23% -19.4%
15% -26.0% 17% -27.2%
20% -33.2% 13% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,729.10 · official $1,731.51 (match) · 1753 history records