Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T22:06:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
1E 0x1e0a…f994 sports 34 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$401 (+8%) realized +$401 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate71%24W / 10L
Drawdown24%max
Avg bet$144per market
Trades / day35.3pace
Fees−$47est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% +$382
other 2% +$41
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)+2.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 +13.0% +2.3% 71% 56% -1.6%
≤30d 34 +13.0% +2.3% 71% 56% -1.6%
≤90d 34 +13.0% +2.3% 71% 56% -1.6%
all 34 +13.0% +2.3% 71% 56% -1.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover35.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +2.3% 56% -1.6%
10% ← realistic here -7.5% 32% -11.0%
15% -16.4% 29% -19.6%
20% -24.6% 24% -27.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +28% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$30 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.39 per $1 lost it wins $2.39
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$401
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses24 / 10
Est. fees paid−$47
Open positions0
Markets (closed)34 / 34
History coverage4d
Avg bet$144
Trades / day35.3
Drawdown24%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 34 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Valorant: Misa Esports vs Team Liquid Academy (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage Jun 29 $59 +$40 +68%
Valorant: Joblife vs Barça eSports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Group B Jun 29 $110 −$13 -12%
Counter-Strike: ASTRAL vs SINQU Rehti - Map 2 Winner Jun 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Team AION (BO3) - European Pro League Group A Jun 29 $664 +$7 +1%
Counter-Strike: Prestige vs MASQ (BO3) - United21 Playoffs Jun 29 $101 −$50 -49%
Counter-Strike: Prestige vs MASQ - Map 1 Winner Jun 29 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? Jun 29 $99 +$41 +41%
Counter-Strike: Fluxo vs UNO MILLE (BO3) - Thunderpick World Champions Jun 28 $51 +$27 +54%
Counter-Strike: Acend vs ECHO (BO3) - Super DraculaN Playoffs Jun 27 $170 +$12 +7%
Counter-Strike: Fake do Biru vs largadosypelados (BO3) - Thunderpick W Jun 27 $82 +$17 +21%
Counter-Strike: Acend vs ECHO - Map 2 Winner Jun 27 $23 +$37 +163%
Counter-Strike: shimmer vs MIBR fe (BO5) - Rainhas do Clutch FERJEE Pl Jun 27 $10 +$19 +188%
Valorant: Azure Dragon Gaming vs NRG Academy - Map 2 Winner Jun 26 $451 +$54 +12%
Counter-Strike: ex-Sashi Academy vs eternal premium (BO3) - European P Jun 26 $210 +$90 +43%
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS - Game 2 Winner Jun 26 $13 −$3 -23%
Counter-Strike: CYBERSHOKE Prospects vs PCIFIC - Map 2 Winner Jun 26 $20 +$10 +54%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ - Game 2 Winner Jun 26 $11 +$19 +163%
Counter-Strike: Prestige vs Millennium Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 26 $11 −$11 -100%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Cloud9 (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage Jun 26 $306 +$54 +18%
Counter-Strike: INFURITY Gaming vs LPH Gaming (BO3) - United21 Playoff Jun 26 $240 +$45 +19%
Valorant: REJECT vs IGZIST (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage Jun 26 $229 +$31 +14%
Counter-Strike: The Huns Esports vs CYBERSHOKE Prospects (BO3) - LG Ul Jun 26 $104 +$56 +54%
Counter-Strike: The Huns Esports vs CYBERSHOKE Prospects - Map 2 Winne Jun 26 $177 −$102 -58%
Dota 2: Mentality Monster vs Ivory (BO3) - EPL World Series Southeast Jun 26 $100 +$32 +31%
Valorant: Beşiktaş Esports vs AlQadsiah Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 25 $157 +$4 +2%
Counter-Strike: Rune Eaters vs Team Novaq - Map 2 Winner Jun 25 $7 −$6 -98%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION - Game 1 Winner Jun 25 $10 +$6 +60%
Counter-Strike: OlyBet SB vs Subtop De France - Map 2 Winner Jun 25 $237 +$7 +3%
Counter-Strike: largadosypelados vs MIBR Academy - Map 2 Winner Jun 25 $266 −$48 -18%
Counter-Strike: Rune Eaters vs Team Novaq - Map 1 Winner Jun 25 $56 −$10 -17%
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs 9INE - Map 2 Winner Jun 25 $245 +$47 +19%
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs 9INE - Map 1 Winner Jun 25 $239 +$9 +4%
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs 9INE (BO3) - Super DraculaN Gr Jun 25 $196 +$43 +22%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs AM Gaming (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group Jun 25 $175 +$21 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Valorant: Misa Esports vs Team Liquid Academy (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage SELL Misa Esports 99¢ $99 1h
Valorant: Misa Esports vs Team Liquid Academy (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage BUY Misa Esports 59¢ $19 2h
Valorant: Misa Esports vs Team Liquid Academy (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage BUY Misa Esports 59¢ $2 2h
Valorant: Misa Esports vs Team Liquid Academy (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage BUY Misa Esports 59¢ $12 2h
Valorant: Misa Esports vs Team Liquid Academy (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage BUY Misa Esports 59¢ $25 2h
Valorant: Joblife vs Barça eSports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Group B SELL Barça eSports 49¢ $97 5h
Valorant: Joblife vs Barça eSports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Group B BUY Barça eSports 55¢ $110 5h
Counter-Strike: ASTRAL vs SINQU Rehti - Map 2 Winner BUY SINQU Rehti 20¢ $0 7h
Counter-Strike: ASTRAL vs SINQU Rehti - Map 2 Winner BUY SINQU Rehti 20¢ $0 7h
Counter-Strike: ASTRAL vs SINQU Rehti - Map 2 Winner BUY SINQU Rehti 20¢ $2 7h
Counter-Strike: ASTRAL vs SINQU Rehti - Map 2 Winner BUY SINQU Rehti 20¢ $8 7h
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Team AION (BO3) - European Pro League Group A SELL 4ikibamboni 92¢ $397 7h
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Team AION (BO3) - European Pro League Group A SELL 4ikibamboni 92¢ $275 7h
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Team AION (BO3) - European Pro League Group A BUY 4ikibamboni 91¢ $664 7h
Counter-Strike: Prestige vs MASQ (BO3) - United21 Playoffs SELL Prestige 59¢ $0 7h
Counter-Strike: Prestige vs MASQ - Map 1 Winner BUY MASQ 50¢ $51 7h
Counter-Strike: Prestige vs MASQ (BO3) - United21 Playoffs SELL Prestige 64¢ $28 7h
Counter-Strike: Prestige vs MASQ (BO3) - United21 Playoffs SELL Prestige 64¢ $2 7h
Counter-Strike: Prestige vs MASQ (BO3) - United21 Playoffs SELL Prestige 64¢ $2 7h
Counter-Strike: Prestige vs MASQ (BO3) - United21 Playoffs SELL Prestige 64¢ $4 7h
Counter-Strike: Prestige vs MASQ (BO3) - United21 Playoffs SELL Prestige 64¢ $3 7h
Counter-Strike: Prestige vs MASQ (BO3) - United21 Playoffs SELL Prestige 64¢ $5 7h
Counter-Strike: Prestige vs MASQ (BO3) - United21 Playoffs SELL Prestige 64¢ $3 7h
Counter-Strike: Prestige vs MASQ (BO3) - United21 Playoffs SELL Prestige 64¢ $3 7h
Counter-Strike: Prestige vs MASQ (BO3) - United21 Playoffs BUY MASQ 50¢ $51 7h
Counter-Strike: Prestige vs MASQ (BO3) - United21 Playoffs BUY Prestige 64¢ $51 7h
Counter-Strike: Fluxo vs UNO MILLE (BO3) - Thunderpick World Champions SELL UNO MILLE 100¢ $78 24h
Counter-Strike: Fluxo vs UNO MILLE (BO3) - Thunderpick World Champions BUY UNO MILLE 64¢ $51 25h
Counter-Strike: Acend vs ECHO (BO3) - Super DraculaN Playoffs SELL Acend 71¢ $71 2d
Counter-Strike: Acend vs ECHO (BO3) - Super DraculaN Playoffs BUY Acend 70¢ $34 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 163 history records